IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v87y2010i6p1880-1892.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand

Author

Listed:
  • Widén, Joakim
  • Wäckelgård, Ewa

Abstract

Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models.

Suggested Citation

  • Widén, Joakim & Wäckelgård, Ewa, 2010. "A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1880-1892, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:6:p:1880-1892
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(09)00493-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Spur, Roman & Fiala, Dusan & Nevrala, Dusan & Probert, Doug, 2006. "Influence of the domestic hot-water daily draw-off profile on the performance of a hot-water store," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 749-773, July.
    2. Kajsa Ellegård & Matthew Cooper, 2004. "Complexity in daily life – a 3D-visualization showing activity patterns in their contexts," electronic International Journal of Time Use Research, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)) and The International Association for Time Use Research (IATUR), vol. 1(1), pages 37-59, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schroeder, Andreas, 2011. "Modeling storage and demand management in power distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4700-4712.
    2. Bingtuan Gao & Xiaofeng Liu & Zhenyu Zhu, 2018. "A Bottom-Up Model for Household Load Profile Based on the Consumption Behavior of Residents," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Hüttel, Silke, 2017. "Quantifying the economic efficiency impact of inaccurate renewable energy price forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 767-774.
    4. Sandels, C. & Brodén, D. & Widén, J. & Nordström, L. & Andersson, E., 2016. "Modeling office building consumer load with a combined physical and behavioral approach: Simulation and validation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 472-485.
    5. Liu, Luyao & Zhao, Yi & Chang, Dongliang & Xie, Jiyang & Ma, Zhanyu & Sun, Qie & Yin, Hongyi & Wennersten, Ronald, 2018. "Prediction of short-term PV power output and uncertainty analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 700-711.
    6. Di Giorgio, Alessandro & Liberati, Francesco, 2014. "Near real time load shifting control for residential electricity prosumers under designed and market indexed pricing models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 119-132.
    7. Muhammad Babar Rasheed & Nadeem Javaid & Ashfaq Ahmad & Mohsin Jamil & Zahoor Ali Khan & Umar Qasim & Nabil Alrajeh, 2016. "Energy Optimization in Smart Homes Using Customer Preference and Dynamic Pricing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Sandels, C. & Widén, J. & Nordström, L., 2014. "Forecasting household consumer electricity load profiles with a combined physical and behavioral approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 267-278.
    9. Houda Ghamlouch & Mitra Fouladirad & Antoine Grall, 2019. "The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties," Post-Print hal-02365402, HAL.
    10. Chung, Mo & Park, Hwa-Choon, 2012. "Building energy demand patterns for department stores in Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 241-249.
    11. Liang, Yile & Liu, Feng & Wang, Cheng & Mei, Shengwei, 2017. "Distributed demand-side energy management scheme in residential smart grids: An ordinal state-based potential game approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 991-1008.
    12. Jung, Jaesung & Cho, Yongju & Cheng, Danling & Onen, Ahmet & Arghandeh, Reza & Dilek, Murat & Broadwater, Robert P., 2013. "Monte Carlo analysis of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles and Distributed Energy Resource growth with residential energy storage in Michigan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 218-235.
    13. Deng, Nana & Wang, Bo & Qiu, Yueming & Liu, Jie & Shi, Han & Zhang, Bin & Wang, Zhaohua, 2022. "The discrepancies in the impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns on electricity consumption in China: Is the short-term pain worth it?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Ghamlouch, Houda & Fouladirad, Mitra & Grall, Antoine, 2019. "The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 614-623.
    15. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fuentes, E. & Arce, L. & Salom, J., 2018. "A review of domestic hot water consumption profiles for application in systems and buildings energy performance analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1530-1547.
    2. Han, Y.M. & Wang, R.Z. & Dai, Y.J., 2009. "Thermal stratification within the water tank," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1014-1026, June.
    3. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    4. Bagdanavicius, Audrius & Jenkins, Nick, 2013. "Power requirements of ground source heat pumps in a residential area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 591-600.
    5. Kumar, Naveen & Chavda, Tilak & Mistry, H.N., 2010. "A truncated pyramid non-tracking type multipurpose domestic solar cooker/hot water system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 471-477, February.
    6. Kazmi, H. & D’Oca, S. & Delmastro, C. & Lodeweyckx, S. & Corgnati, S.P., 2016. "Generalizable occupant-driven optimization model for domestic hot water production in NZEB," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Mattioli, Giulio & Anable, Jillian & Vrotsou, Katerina, 2016. "Car dependent practices: Findings from a sequence pattern mining study of UK time use data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 56-72.
    8. Omu, Akomeno & Hsieh, Shanshan & Orehounig, Kristina, 2016. "Mixed integer linear programming for the design of solar thermal energy systems with short-term storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 313-326.
    9. Guo, Xiaofeng & Goumba, Alain Pascal, 2018. "Air source heat pump for domestic hot water supply: Performance comparison between individual and building scale installations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 794-802.
    10. Yildiz, Baran & Roberts, Mike & Bilbao, Jose I. & Heslop, Simon & Bruce, Anna & Dore, Jonathon & MacGill, Iain & Egan, Renate J. & Sproul, Alistair B., 2021. "Assessment of control tools for utilizing excess distributed photovoltaic generation in domestic electric water heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    11. Bertrand, Alexandre & Aggoune, Riad & Maréchal, François, 2017. "In-building waste water heat recovery: An urban-scale method for the characterisation of water streams and the assessment of energy savings and costs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 110-125.
    12. Guo, J.J. & Wu, J.Y. & Wang, R.Z. & Li, S., 2011. "Experimental research and operation optimization of an air-source heat pump water heater," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 4128-4138.
    13. Bertrand, Alexandre & Mastrucci, Alessio & Schüler, Nils & Aggoune, Riad & Maréchal, François, 2017. "Characterisation of domestic hot water end-uses for integrated urban thermal energy assessment and optimisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P2), pages 152-166.
    14. Ellegård, Kajsa & Palm, Jenny, 2011. "Visualizing energy consumption activities as a tool for making everyday life more sustainable," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1920-1926, May.
    15. Meireles, I. & Sousa, V. & Bleys, B. & Poncelet, B., 2022. "Domestic hot water consumption pattern: Relation with total water consumption and air temperature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Tian, Shuai & Lu, Yuxin & Zhou, Xin & Zhang, Lun & An, Jingjing & Yan, Da & Shi, Xing & Jin, Xing, 2023. "A new perspective of solar hot water system operation optimization: Supply and demand matching," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 89-104.
    17. Yildiz, Baran & Bilbao, Jose I. & Roberts, Mike & Heslop, Simon & Dore, Jonathon & Bruce, Anna & MacGill, Iain & Egan, Renate J. & Sproul, Alistair B., 2021. "Analysis of electricity consumption and thermal storage of domestic electric water heating systems to utilize excess PV generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Sandels, C. & Widén, J. & Nordström, L., 2014. "Forecasting household consumer electricity load profiles with a combined physical and behavioral approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 267-278.
    19. Poppi, Stefano & Bales, Chris & Haller, Michel Y. & Heinz, Andreas, 2016. "Influence of boundary conditions and component size on electricity demand in solar thermal and heat pump combisystems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1062-1073.
    20. Zhou, Xin & Tian, Shuai & An, Jingjing & Yan, Da & Zhang, Lun & Yang, Junyan, 2022. "Modeling occupant behavior’s influence on the energy efficiency of solar domestic hot water systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:6:p:1880-1892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.