IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v371y2024ics0306261924010936.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System dynamics-multiple the objective optimization model for the coordinated development of urban economy-energy-carbon system

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Lu
  • Li, Xin
  • Liu, Wei
  • Kang, Xinyu
  • Zhao, Yifei
  • Wang, Minxi

Abstract

The deepening conflict between human societal progress and efforts to combat climate change necessitates immediate coordination among the Economy-Energy-Carbon (EEC) management. The study applies IPCC accounting methods to compute the historical carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from 2005 to 2021. It assesses the developmental efficiency of various subsystems in the EEC system by employing the rank-sum ratio. Taking a typical city in the region (Chongqing) as a case study, this study integrates System Dynamics (SD) with NSGAIII to develop an EEC multi-objective optimization model. It utilizes the VIKOR model to select the optimal solution. Based on this, the analysis explores the coupled and coordinated state of the EEC system from 2022 to 2030 under the optimal solution mode. Research findings indicate that: (1) The overall carbon emissions exhibit a slight increase, where carbon sources surpass the carbon sink created by land use. (2) Compared to results from other preference-based scenarios, in the scenario where subsystem efficiencies are all optimal, the minimum cumulative carbon emissions amount to 1520.52 million tons, with the economy maintaining a favorable status. Moreover, the overall coupling coordination of the EEC is in a relatively favorable state, and it tends to improve annually. (3) To attain the coordinated development of the EEC system by 2030, the energy structure of the representative city must decrease coal consumption by 26.17%, maintain the construction land ratio below 3.7%, and guarantee forest coverage exceeds 57.77%. This study, utilizing complex system simulations and optimization analyses across various scenarios, offers pertinent recommendations for attaining urban low-carbon development while upholding societal advancement.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Lu & Li, Xin & Liu, Wei & Kang, Xinyu & Zhao, Yifei & Wang, Minxi, 2024. "System dynamics-multiple the objective optimization model for the coordinated development of urban economy-energy-carbon system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:371:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924010936
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924010936
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123710?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Kunlun & Zheng, Leven J. & Zhang, Justin Zuopeng & Yao, Hongjiang, 2022. "The impact of promoting new energy vehicles on carbon intensity: Causal evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Zhu, Rui & Lau, Wing Sze & You, Linlin & Yan, Jinyue & Ratti, Carlo & Chen, Min & Wong, Man Sing & Qin, Zheng, 2024. "Multi-sourced data modelling of spatially heterogenous life-cycle carbon mitigation from installed rooftop photovoltaics: A case study in Singapore," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    3. Zhu, Kunfu & Guo, Xuefan & Zhang, Zengkai, 2022. "Reevaluation of the carbon emissions embodied in global value chains based on an inter-country input-output model with multinational enterprises," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    4. Zhang, Pengfei & Cai, Wenqiu & Yao, Mingtao & Wang, Zhiyou & Yang, Luzhen & Wei, Wendong, 2020. "Urban carbon emissions associated with electricity consumption in Beijing and the driving factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Xu, Jinghang & Guan, Yuru & Oldfield, Jonathan & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli, 2024. "China carbon emission accounts 2020-2021," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    6. Ying Sun & Long Qian & Zhi Liu, 2022. "The carbon emissions level of China’s service industry: an analysis of characteristics and influencing factors," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13557-13582, December.
    7. Emanuele Massetti, 2011. "Carbon tax scenarios for China and India: exploring politically feasible mitigation goals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 209-227, September.
    8. Qiao, Renlu & Liu, Xiaochang & Gao, Shuo & Liang, Diling & GesangYangji, Gesang & Xia, Li & Zhou, Shiqi & Ao, Xiang & Jiang, Qingrui & Wu, Zhiqiang, 2024. "Industrialization, urbanization, and innovation: Nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    9. Zhixiong Weng & Yuqi Song & Hao Ma & Zhong Ma & Tingting Liu, 2023. "Forecasting energy demand, structure, and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10369-10391, September.
    10. Lv, Fei & Wu, Qiong & Ren, Hongbo & Zhou, Weisheng & Li, Qifen, 2024. "On the design and analysis of long-term low-carbon roadmaps: A review and evaluation of available energy-economy-environment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    11. Wang, Shaojian & Xie, Zihan & Wu, Rong & Feng, Kuishang, 2022. "How does urbanization affect the carbon intensity of human well-being? A global assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    12. Lu Chen & Xin Li & Yunqi Yang & Minxi Wang, 2021. "Analyzing the features of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Economic Zone," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 573-589, June.
    13. Mei, H. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Ma, Y. & Lv, J., 2020. "Analyzing the impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Furceri, Davide & Ganslmeier, Michael & Ostry, Jonathan, 2023. "Are climate change policies politically costly?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    15. Teresa Pakulska, 2021. "Green Energy in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries: New Challenges on the Path to Sustainable Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Zhou, Yicheng, 2022. "Measuring the green economic growth in China: Influencing factors and policy perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Xu, Jiaqi & Zhao, Jingfeng & Liu, Wen, 2023. "A comparative study of renewable and fossil fuels energy impacts on green development in Asian countries with divergent income inequality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    18. Zhang Yikun & Lin Woon Leong & Phan The Cong & Ayman Abu-Rumman & Ata Al Shraah & Sanil S Hishan, 2023. "Green growth, governance, and green technology innovation. How effective towards SDGs in G7 countries?," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 2145984-214, July.
    19. Zhiming Yang & Zhen Wang & Xiao-Chen Yuan & Yu Qi & Yunquan Zhang & Weiqing Wang & Fanglin He & Jing Li, 2022. "Does income inequality aggravate the impacts of air pollution on physical health? Evidence from China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 2120-2144, February.
    20. Yan Zhang & Shenglan Xu & Jiekuan Zhang, 2023. "How economic growth pressure impact carbon emissions: Evidence for China," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 2159473-215, December.
    21. Zhu Liu & Dabo Guan & Wei Wei & Steven J. Davis & Philippe Ciais & Jin Bai & Shushi Peng & Qiang Zhang & Klaus Hubacek & Gregg Marland & Robert J. Andres & Douglas Crawford-Brown & Jintai Lin & Hongya, 2015. "Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 524(7565), pages 335-338, August.
    22. Qi Cui & Xiaoyu Ma & Sisi Zhang, 2023. "Does green finance drive low-carbon economic development? Evidence from China," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 2183421-218, December.
    23. Mirziyoyeva, Ziroat & Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2022. "Renewable energy and CO2 emissions intensity in the top carbon intense countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 507-512.
    24. Liang, Xiaoying & Min Fan, & Xiao, Yuting & Yao, Jing, 2022. "Temporal-spatial characteristics of energy-based carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors during 2004–2019, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wei Chen & Yi Ai, 2024. "Research on the Carbon Emission Prediction and Reduction Strategies for the Civil Aviation Industry in China: A System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Haoran & Li, Ruixiong & Cai, Xingrui & Zheng, Chaoyue & Liu, Laibao & Liu, Maodian & Zhang, Qianru & Lin, Huiming & Chen, Long & Wang, Xuejun, 2022. "Do electricity flows hamper regional economic–environmental equity?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    2. Qinyi Huang & Yu Zhang, 2021. "Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Heilongjiang Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Qingchun Guan & Tianya Meng & Chengyang Guan & Junwen Chen & Hui Li & Xu Zhou, 2024. "Multi-Scale Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Coastal Cities Based on Multi-Source Data: A Case Study of Qingdao, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Fan, Qingzhu & Gao, Wang, 2024. "Climate risk and financial stability: The mediating effect of green credit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Shirzad, Mohammad & Kazemi Shariat Panahi, Hamed & Dashti, Behrouz B. & Rajaeifar, Mohammad Ali & Aghbashlo, Mortaza & Tabatabaei, Meisam, 2019. "A comprehensive review on electricity generation and GHG emission reduction potentials through anaerobic digestion of agricultural and livestock/slaughterhouse wastes in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 571-594.
    6. Man, Yi & Yan, Yukun & Wang, Xu & Ren, Jingzheng & Xiong, Qingang & He, Zhenglei, 2023. "Overestimated carbon emission of the pulp and paper industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    7. Chen, Yuhong & Lyu, Yanfeng & Yang, Xiangdong & Zhang, Xiaohong & Pan, Hengyu & Wu, Jun & Lei, Yongjia & Zhang, Yanzong & Wang, Guiyin & Xu, Min & Luo, Hongbin, 2022. "Performance comparison of urea production using one set of integrated indicators considering energy use, economic cost and emissions’ impacts: A case from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    8. João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Financial Crises and Climate Change," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(1), pages 166-190, March.
    9. Hui Fang & Chunyu Jiang & Tufail Hussain & Xiaoye Zhang & Qixin Huo, 2022. "Input Digitization of the Manufacturing Industry and Carbon Emission Intensity Based on Testing the World and Developing Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-28, October.
    10. Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Tomasz Pisula, 2022. "An Analysis of the Use of Energy from Conventional Fossil Fuels and Green Renewable Energy in the Context of the European Union’s Planned Energy Transformation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Ling Yang & Michael L. Lahr, 2019. "The Drivers of China’s Regional Carbon Emission Change—A Structural Decomposition Analysis from 1997 to 2007," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, June.
    12. Li, Li & Shan, Yuli & Lei, Yalin & Wu, Sanmang & Yu, Xiang & Lin, Xiyan & Chen, Yupei, 2019. "Decoupling of economic growth and emissions in China’s cities: A case study of the Central Plains urban agglomeration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 36-45.
    13. Junbo Wang & Liu Chen & Lu Chen & Xiaohui Zhao & Minxi Wang & Yiyi Ju & Li Xin, 2019. "City-Level Features of Energy Footprints and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Sichuan Province of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    14. Chunli Zhou & Yuze Tang & Deyan Zhu & Zhiwei Cui, 2024. "Tracking the Carbon Emissions Using Electricity Big Data: A Case Study of the Metal Smelting Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Wang, Zhibao & Zhao, Nana & Wei, Wendong & Zhang, Qianwen, 2021. "A differentiated energy Kuznets curve: Evidence from mainland China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    16. Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
    17. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Miao, Lu, 2023. "The greenhouse gas rebound effect from increased energy efficiency across China's staple crops," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Guorong Chen & Changyan Liu, 2023. "Can Low–Carbon City Development Stimulate Population Growth? Insights from China’s Low–Carbon Pilot Program," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-22, October.
    19. Shuangzhi Li & Xiaoling Zhang & Zhongci Deng & Xiaokang Liu & Ruoou Yang & Lihao Yin, 2023. "Identifying the Critical Supply Chains for Black Carbon and CO 2 in the Sichuan Urban Agglomeration of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Xiao, Huijuan & Wang, Daoping & Qi, Yu & Shao, Shuai & Zhou, Ya & Shan, Yuli, 2021. "The governance-production nexus of eco-efficiency in Chinese resource-based cities: A two-stage network DEA approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:371:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924010936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.