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Research on the Carbon Emission Prediction and Reduction Strategies for the Civil Aviation Industry in China: A System Dynamics Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Chen

    (College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China)

  • Yi Ai

    (College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China)

Abstract

With the continuous growth in the volume of global air transportation, the carbon emissions of the civil aviation industry have received increasing attention. Carbon emission reduction in civil aviation is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable social development. This article aims to use system dynamics (SD) methods to establish a carbon emission model for the civil aviation industry that includes economic, demographic, technological, policy, and behavioral factors; analyze the key factors that affect carbon emissions; and explore effective emission reduction strategies. Researchers have found that SD-based carbon emission prediction has a high accuracy and is suitable for predicting carbon emissions in civil aviation. Through different scenario simulations, it has been found that any single emission reduction measure will struggle to effectively contribute to the expected carbon reductions in China’s civil aviation. Simultaneously adopting measures such as improving fuel efficiency, adopting clean energy, and using new-power aircraft is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions from civil aviation. In addition, policy intervention and technological innovation are equally crucial for achieving long-term emission reduction goals. The research results not only provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the aviation industry but also provide a reference for policymakers to formulate comprehensive emission reduction strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Chen & Yi Ai, 2024. "Research on the Carbon Emission Prediction and Reduction Strategies for the Civil Aviation Industry in China: A System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:20:p:8950-:d:1499749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Lu & Li, Xin & Liu, Wei & Kang, Xinyu & Zhao, Yifei & Wang, Minxi, 2024. "System dynamics-multiple the objective optimization model for the coordinated development of urban economy-energy-carbon system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    2. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2009. "Why have CO2 emissions increased in the transport sector in Asia ? underlying factors and policy options," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5098, The World Bank.
    3. Brueckner, Jan K. & Abreu, Chrystyane, 2017. "Airline fuel usage and carbon emissions: Determining factors," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 10-17.
    4. Lu, Binbin & Dong, Jintao & Wang, Chun & Sun, Huabo & Yao, Hongyu, 2024. "High-resolution spatio-temporal estimation of CO2 emissions from China's civil aviation industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
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