IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v262y2020ics0306261920300805.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system in China

Author

Listed:
  • Mei, H.
  • Li, Y.P.
  • Suo, C.
  • Ma, Y.
  • Lv, J.

Abstract

Climate change mitigation by reducing carbon dioxide emission becomes one of the major challenges for energy systems. In this study, a multi-GCM ensemble simulation and optimization approach is developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on China’s energy-economy-carbon nexus system under multiple uncertainties through integrating techniques of multiple global climate models, support-vector-regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and interval chance-constrained programming within a general framework. The developed approach can tackle multiple uncertainties existed in global climate models, random carbon dioxide emission and complex optimization process. Results disclose that (i) the national electricity demand would grow around 58.6% in the next 30 years under climate change; (ii) for climate change mitigation and sustainable development, fossil fuel would be gradually replaced by renewable energy (i.e. the share of fossil fuel to the total energy supply decreasing 22.5% and the share of electricity generated from renewable energy increasing 27.0% by 2050); (iii) compared to the peak value in 2030, carbon dioxide emission would reduce 15.1% by 2050, most reduction from coal-fired power generation; (iv) there is a tradeoff between carbon dioxide emission and system cost as p-level decreases from 0.15 to 0.01 (i.e. carbon dioxide emission can reduce 1.9% with 3.7% of raised system cost). It is desired for China to adjust its current energy supply structure for reducing carbon emission and seeking a low-carbon developmental path. The most effective way is to eliminate some small coal-fired units. A number of wind-power and solar-power projects are expected to be implemented due to their abundant potential markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei, H. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Ma, Y. & Lv, J., 2020. "Analyzing the impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:262:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920300805
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920300805
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114568?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AL-Musaylh, Mohanad S. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Adamowski, Jan F. & Li, Yan, 2019. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using machine learning methods enriched with ground-based climate and ECMWF Reanalysis atmospheric predictors in southeast Queensland, Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Chen, Yulong & Wang, Zheng & Zhong, Zhangqi, 2019. "CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production and foreign trade in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 208-216.
    3. Lv, J. & Li, Y.P. & Shan, B.G. & Jin, S.W. & Suo, C., 2018. "Planning energy-water nexus system under multiple uncertainties – A case study of Hebei province," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 389-403.
    4. Mukherjee, Sayanti & Vineeth, C.R. & Nateghi, Roshanak, 2019. "Evaluating regional climate-electricity demand nexus: A composite Bayesian predictive framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1561-1582.
    5. Hou, Tianfeng & Nuyens, Dirk & Roels, Staf & Janssen, Hans, 2019. "Quasi-Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis: Sampling efficiency and error estimation in engineering applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Burandt, Thorsten & Xiong, Bobby & Löffler, Konstantin & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Decarbonizing China’s energy system – Modeling the transformation of the electricity, transportation, heat, and industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Jin, S.W. & Li, Y.P. & Nie, S. & Sun, J., 2017. "The potential role of carbon capture and storage technology in sustainable electric-power systems under multiple uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 467-480.
    8. Zheng, Yuanfan & Weng, Qihao, 2019. "Modeling the effect of climate change on building energy demand in Los Angeles county by using a GIS-based high spatial- and temporal-resolution approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 641-655.
    9. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Li, M.W., 2014. "An integrated optimization modeling approach for planning emission trading and clean-energy development under uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 31-46.
    10. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Guo, P. & Yang, Z.F. & Nie, S.L., 2010. "A dual-interval vertex analysis method and its application to environmental decision making under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 536-550, January.
    11. Schlott, Markus & Kies, Alexander & Brown, Tom & Schramm, Stefan & Greiner, Martin, 2018. "The impact of climate change on a cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1645-1659.
    12. Marcucci, Adriana & Panos, Evangelos & Kypreos, Socrates & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2019. "Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 °C climate target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 239-251.
    13. Shaik, Saleem & Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman, 2018. "Does climate influence energy demand? A regional analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 691-703.
    14. Fan, Jing-Li & Hu, Jia-Wei & Zhang, Xian, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on electricity demand in China: An empirical estimation based on panel data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 880-888.
    15. Zheng, Shuguang & Huang, Guohe & Zhou, Xiong & Zhu, Xiaohang, 2020. "Climate-change impacts on electricity demands at a metropolitan scale: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    16. Boehlert, Brent & Strzepek, Kenneth M. & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Swanson, Richard & McCluskey, Alyssa & Neumann, James E. & McFarland, James & Martinich, Jeremy, 2016. "Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1511-1519.
    17. Chen, J.P. & Huang, G. & Baetz, B.W. & Lin, Q.G. & Dong, C. & Cai, Y.P., 2018. "Integrated inexact energy systems planning under climate change: A case study of Yukon Territory, Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 493-504.
    18. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric D. & Reyna, Janet, 2019. "Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1-9.
    19. Burandt, Thorsten & Xiong, Bobby & Löffler, Konstantin & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Decarbonizing China’s energy system – Modeling the transformation of the electricity, transportation, heat, and industrial sectors," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 255, pages 1-17.
    20. Chatzizacharia, Kalliopi & Benekis, Vasilis & Hatziavramidis, Dimitris, 2016. "A blueprint for an energy policy in Greece with considerations of climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 382-389.
    21. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "Energy sector uncertainty decomposition: New approach based on implied volatilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 141-148.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    2. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Mengzhu Xiao & Manuel Wetzel & Thomas Pregger & Sonja Simon & Yvonne Scholz, 2020. "Modeling the Supply of Renewable Electricity to Metropolitan Regions in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-31, June.
    4. Jan Fořt & Jiří Šál & Jaroslav Žák & Robert Černý, 2020. "Assessment of Wood-Based Fly Ash as Alternative Cement Replacement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Cao, R. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, J.P. & Li, Y.P. & He, C.Y., 2021. "A chance-constrained urban agglomeration energy model for cooperative carbon emission management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Wang, Xiaokui & Bamisile, Olusola & Chen, Shuheng & Xu, Xiao & Luo, Shihua & Huang, Qi & Hu, Weihao, 2022. "Decarbonization of China's electricity systems with hydropower penetration and pumped-hydro storage: Comparing the policies with a techno-economic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 65-83.
    8. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    9. Miao, Ankang & Yuan, Yue & Wu, Han & Ma, Xin & Shao, Chenyu & Xiang, Sheng, 2024. "Pathway for China's provincial carbon emission peak: A case study of the Jiangsu Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    10. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    11. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zhang, Jinjun & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Analyze the environmental sustainability factors of China: The role of fossil fuel energy and renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 390-402.
    12. Andrew Crossland & Keith Scoles & Allen Wang & Chris Groves & Susan Sun, 2020. "Assessment of Electricity Decarbonization Scenarios for New Zealand and Great Britain using a Plant Dispatch and Electrical Energy Storage Modelling Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    13. Huang, Shanshan & Suo, Cai & Guo, Junhong & Lv, Jing & Jing, Rui & Yu, Lei & Fan, Yurui & Ding, Yanming, 2023. "Balancing the water-energy dilemma in nexus system planning with bi-level and multi-uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    14. Li, Jianglong & Huang, Jiashun, 2020. "The expansion of China's solar energy: Challenges and policy options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Marwan, Marwan, 2020. "The impact of probability of electricity price spike and outside temperature to define total expected cost for air conditioning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Fredrik Ege Abrahamsen & Sturla Grina Ruud & Alemayehu Gebremedhin, 2020. "Moving Toward a Sustainable Energy System: A Case Study of Viken County of Norway," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-16, November.
    17. Pan, Xunzhang & Ma, Xueqing & Zhang, Yanru & Shao, Tianming & Peng, Tianduo & Li, Xiang & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2023. "Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Jasmine Ramsebner & Reinhard Haas & Amela Ajanovic & Martin Wietschel, 2021. "The sector coupling concept: A critical review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), July.
    19. Yabin Da & Bin Zeng & Jing-Li Fan & Jiawei Hu & Lanlan Li, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to climate: evidence from residential electricity consumption," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Fan, Xing & Zhang, Wen & Chen, Weiwei & Chen, Bin, 2020. "Land–water–energy nexus in agricultural management for greenhouse gas mitigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:262:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920300805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.