IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v277y2020ics0306261920310588.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CO2 emissions from urban buildings at the city scale: System dynamic projections and potential mitigation policies

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Pei
  • Lin, Borong
  • Zhou, Hao
  • Wu, Xiaoying
  • Little, John C.

Abstract

To reduce energy-related CO2 emissions from the urban building sector, multiple diverse energy efficiency policies are often simultaneously implemented by different government entities. Thus, evaluating and quantifying the effects of these policies are important for improving their efficacy and prioritizing them. In this paper, a projection of the long-term CO2 emissions from city-scale urban buildings whose energy use and construction are governed by multiple diverse policies is presented. A system dynamics (SD) model is established to simulate the causal path through which different policies directly and indirectly affect the energy use of and CO2 emissions from buildings in the urban building stock, and the model is applied to Beijing, China. The results show that under the existing set of policies, the primary energy use by urban buildings in Beijing will peak around 2025 and that energy-related CO2 emissions will peak around 2022. The model also reveals interference between the policy for promoting green building construction and the policy limiting the urban building stock area. Targeted measures for improving and prioritizing these policies are suggested, and implications for policy design and implementations are proposed. The framework developed in this study can be used not only to project long-term energy-related emissions from building sectors but also to evaluate the effects of policies on emissions. Suggestions for adapting the model to more general cases are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Pei & Lin, Borong & Zhou, Hao & Wu, Xiaoying & Little, John C., 2020. "CO2 emissions from urban buildings at the city scale: System dynamic projections and potential mitigation policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920310588
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115546
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920310588
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115546?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mi, Zhifu & Zhang, Yunkun & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Cong, Ronggang & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1073-1081.
    2. Hou, Jing & Liu, Yisheng & Wu, Yong & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei, 2016. "Comparative study of commercial building energy-efficiency retrofit policies in four pilot cities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 204-215.
    3. Li, Wenliang & Zhou, Yuyu & Cetin, Kristen & Eom, Jiyong & Wang, Yu & Chen, Gang & Zhang, Xuesong, 2017. "Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2445-2457.
    4. Spenser Robinson & Robert Simons & Eunkyu Lee & Andrew Kern, 2016. "Demand for Green Buildings: Office Tenants' Stated Willingness-to-Pay for Green Features," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 38(3), pages 423-452.
    5. Chen, Shaoqing & Chen, Bin, 2015. "Urban energy consumption: Different insights from energy flow analysis, input–output analysis and ecological network analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 99-107.
    6. Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Dirks, James & Jensen, Erik & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie & Schmidt, Laurel & Seiple, Timothy, 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1077-1088.
    7. Pan, Jiun-Nan & Huang, Jr-Tsung & Chiang, Tsun-Feng, 2015. "Empirical study of the local government deficit, land finance and real estate markets in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 57-67.
    8. Jeon, Chanwoong & Shin, Juneseuk, 2014. "Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: Photovoltaic technology case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 447-457.
    9. Aslani, Alireza & Helo, Petri & Naaranoja, Marja, 2014. "Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 758-765.
    10. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wahhaj Ahmed & Ayman Alazazmeh & Muhammad Asif, 2022. "Energy and Water Saving Potential in Commercial Buildings: A Retrofit Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. An Huang & Li Tian & Qing Li & Yongfu Li & Jianghao Yu & Yuan Gao & Jing Xia, 2023. "Land-Use Planning Serves as a Critical Tool for Improving Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity: A Review of Evaluation Methods and Application," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    4. Rabnawaz Khan, 2021. "Beta decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions by GDP, energy consumption, electricity production, value-added industries, and population in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Duan, Haiyan & Chen, Siyan & Song, Junnian, 2022. "Characterizing regional building energy consumption under joint climatic and socioeconomic impacts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    6. Zhenxu Guo & Jiarui Shen & Lihong Li, 2024. "Identifying the implementation effect of technology transfer policy using system dynamics: a case study in Liaoning, China," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 660-688, April.
    7. Linlin Xia & Jianfeng Wei & Ruwei Wang & Lei Chen & Yan Zhang & Zhifeng Yang, 2022. "Exploring Potential Ways to Reduce the Carbon Emission Gap in an Urban Metabolic System: A Network Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rauf, Abdul & Zhang, Jin & Li, Jinkai & Amin, Waqas, 2018. "Structural changes, energy consumption and carbon emissions in China: Empirical evidence from ARDL bound testing model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 194-206.
    2. Fang, Delin & Chen, Bin, 2019. "Information-based ecological network analysis for carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 45-53.
    3. Feng, Yidai & Yuan, Huaxi & Liu, Yaobin, 2023. "The energy-saving effect in the new transformation of urbanization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-59.
    4. Wenliang Li, 2020. "Quantifying the Building Energy Dynamics of Manhattan, New York City, Using an Urban Building Energy Model and Localized Weather Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Zhang, Shicong & Wang, Ke & Xu, Wei & Iyer-Raniga, Usha & Athienitis, Andreas & Ge, Hua & Cho, Dong woo & Feng, Wei & Okumiya, Masaya & Yoon, Gyuyoung & Mazria, Edward & Lyu, Yanjie, 2021. "Policy recommendations for the zero energy building promotion towards carbon neutral in Asia-Pacific Region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Bukhary, Saria & Ahmad, Sajjad & Batista, Jacimaria, 2018. "Analyzing land and water requirements for solar deployment in the Southwestern United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3288-3305.
    7. Abbas Al-Refaie & Natalija Lepkova, 2022. "Impacts of Renewable Energy Policies on CO 2 Emissions Reduction and Energy Security Using System Dynamics: The Case of Small-Scale Sector in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Cao, Zhi & Liu, Gang & Duan, Huabo & Xi, Fengming & Liu, Guiwen & Yang, Wei, 2019. "Unravelling the mystery of Chinese building lifetime: A calibration and verification based on dynamic material flow analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 442-452.
    9. Li, Kai & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili & Cai, Weiguang & Ma, Xin, 2022. "Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    10. Yamaguchi, Yohei & Kim, Bumjoon & Kitamura, Takuya & Akizawa, Kotone & Chen, Hemiao & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki, 2022. "Building stock energy modeling considering building system composition and long-term change for climate change mitigation of commercial building stocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    11. Bianchi, Carlo & Zhang, Liang & Goldwasser, David & Parker, Andrew & Horsey, Henry, 2020. "Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    12. Tang, Lei & Guo, Jue & Zhao, Boyang & Wang, Xiuli & Shao, Chengcheng & Wang, Yifei, 2021. "Power generation mix evolution based on rolling horizon optimal approach: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    13. Abbas Al-Refaie & Natalija Lepkova & Constantinos Hadjistassou, 2023. "Using System Dynamics to Examine Effects of Satisfaction with PV Systems, Advertising, and Competition on Energy Security and CO 2 Emissions in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-25, October.
    14. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    15. Chen, Shaoqing & Zhu, Feiyao, 2019. "Unveiling key drivers of urban embodied and controlled carbon footprints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 835-845.
    16. Li, Xiaoma & Zhou, Yuyu & Yu, Sha & Jia, Gensuo & Li, Huidong & Li, Wenliang, 2019. "Urban heat island impacts on building energy consumption: A review of approaches and findings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 407-419.
    17. Iddio, E. & Wang, L. & Thomas, Y. & McMorrow, G. & Denzer, A., 2020. "Energy efficient operation and modeling for greenhouses: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Mauree, Dasaraden & Naboni, Emanuele & Coccolo, Silvia & Perera, A.T.D. & Nik, Vahid M. & Scartezzini, Jean-Louis, 2019. "A review of assessment methods for the urban environment and its energy sustainability to guarantee climate adaptation of future cities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 733-746.
    19. Bai, Hongtao & Feng, Xiangyu & Hou, Huimin & He, Gang & Dong, Yan & Xu, He, 2018. "Mapping inter-industrial CO2 flows within China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 400-408.
    20. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920310588. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.