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CO2 emissions from urban buildings at the city scale: System dynamic projections and potential mitigation policies

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  • Liu, Pei
  • Lin, Borong
  • Zhou, Hao
  • Wu, Xiaoying
  • Little, John C.

Abstract

To reduce energy-related CO2 emissions from the urban building sector, multiple diverse energy efficiency policies are often simultaneously implemented by different government entities. Thus, evaluating and quantifying the effects of these policies are important for improving their efficacy and prioritizing them. In this paper, a projection of the long-term CO2 emissions from city-scale urban buildings whose energy use and construction are governed by multiple diverse policies is presented. A system dynamics (SD) model is established to simulate the causal path through which different policies directly and indirectly affect the energy use of and CO2 emissions from buildings in the urban building stock, and the model is applied to Beijing, China. The results show that under the existing set of policies, the primary energy use by urban buildings in Beijing will peak around 2025 and that energy-related CO2 emissions will peak around 2022. The model also reveals interference between the policy for promoting green building construction and the policy limiting the urban building stock area. Targeted measures for improving and prioritizing these policies are suggested, and implications for policy design and implementations are proposed. The framework developed in this study can be used not only to project long-term energy-related emissions from building sectors but also to evaluate the effects of policies on emissions. Suggestions for adapting the model to more general cases are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Pei & Lin, Borong & Zhou, Hao & Wu, Xiaoying & Little, John C., 2020. "CO2 emissions from urban buildings at the city scale: System dynamic projections and potential mitigation policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920310588
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wahhaj Ahmed & Ayman Alazazmeh & Muhammad Asif, 2022. "Energy and Water Saving Potential in Commercial Buildings: A Retrofit Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. An Huang & Li Tian & Qing Li & Yongfu Li & Jianghao Yu & Yuan Gao & Jing Xia, 2023. "Land-Use Planning Serves as a Critical Tool for Improving Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity: A Review of Evaluation Methods and Application," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Rabnawaz Khan, 2021. "Beta decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions by GDP, energy consumption, electricity production, value-added industries, and population in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Linlin Xia & Jianfeng Wei & Ruwei Wang & Lei Chen & Yan Zhang & Zhifeng Yang, 2022. "Exploring Potential Ways to Reduce the Carbon Emission Gap in an Urban Metabolic System: A Network Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    7. Duan, Haiyan & Chen, Siyan & Song, Junnian, 2022. "Characterizing regional building energy consumption under joint climatic and socioeconomic impacts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. Zhenxu Guo & Jiarui Shen & Lihong Li, 2024. "Identifying the implementation effect of technology transfer policy using system dynamics: a case study in Liaoning, China," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 660-688, April.

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