IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v328y2022ics0306261922011096.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A reliable energy system for Japan with merit order dispatch, high variable renewable share and no nuclear power

Author

Listed:
  • Knuepfer, K.
  • Rogalski, N.
  • Knuepfer, A.
  • Esteban, M.
  • Shibayama, T.

Abstract

In the context of Japanese energy targets for 2030 and the long-term strategy towards zero carbon emissions by 2050, this study estimates the impact of several measures for increasing the renewable generation share while maintaining a reliable energy system. To do so, the authors attempted to reproduce the expected 2030 energy mix according to the 5th Strategic Energy Plan, and then formulated two different alternative scenarios: a European-style merit order dispatch in Scenario 1, and the replacement of nuclear generation with renewables in Scenario 2. The simulations were carried out using the Energy System simulation model (EnSym), which was newly developed by the authors. EnSym simulates the hourly generation of all major resources, including variable renewables, using meteorological data. Spatially, EnSym also simulates the electricity transmission grid of Japan, allowing to understand how changes in grid capacity, dispatch framework and energy policy can impact the overall system. The results show that merely switching to a merit order dispatch could increase the use of renewable generation by 1.5% (to 22.6%). Further, replacing nuclear power resulted in a renewable share of 58.2%, which would include 300 GW of solar PV, 45 GW wind, 36 GW biomass and 23 GW geothermal capacity (while leaving all other generating capacity constant at 2021 levels). Based on these results, the authors also provide recommendations for changes to the next, 6th, Strategic Energy Plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Knuepfer, K. & Rogalski, N. & Knuepfer, A. & Esteban, M. & Shibayama, T., 2022. "A reliable energy system for Japan with merit order dispatch, high variable renewable share and no nuclear power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:328:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922011096
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922011096
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119840?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ., 2020. "Citizens Basic Income as social policy," Chapters, in: A Modern Guide to Citizen’s Basic Income, chapter 9, pages 144-171, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Heard, B.P. & Brook, B.W. & Wigley, T.M.L. & Bradshaw, C.J.A., 2017. "Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1122-1133.
    3. Trencher, Gregory & Healy, Noel & Hasegawa, Koichi & Asuka, Jusen, 2019. "Discursive resistance to phasing out coal-fired electricity: Narratives in Japan's coal regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 782-796.
    4. ., 2020. "Innovation policy today," Chapters, in: The Idea of Technological Innovation, chapter 8, pages 115-141, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Odenberger, M. & Unger, T. & Johnsson, F., 2009. "Pathways for the North European electricity supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1660-1677, May.
    7. ., 2020. "Theory of regional policy," Chapters, in: Evolutionary Spatial Economics, chapter 29, pages 565-570, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. ., 2020. "Optimal Tax Policy," Chapters, in: Tax Policy and Uncertainty, chapter 6, pages 135-160, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193, February.
    10. Esteban, Miguel & Zhang, Qi & Utama, Agya, 2012. "Estimation of the energy storage requirement of a future 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 22-31.
    11. Tsuchiya, Haruki, 2012. "Electricity supply largely from solar and wind resources in Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 318-325.
    12. Dong, Yanli & Shimada, Koji, 2017. "Evolution from the renewable portfolio standards to feed-in tariff for the deployment of renewable energy in Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 590-596.
    13. Wakiyama, Takako & Kuriyama, Akihisa, 2018. "Assessment of renewable energy expansion potential and its implications on reforming Japan's electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 302-316.
    14. ., 2020. "Tax Policy under Uncertainty," Chapters, in: Tax Policy and Uncertainty, chapter 4, pages 75-110, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. ., 2020. "Inventing innovation policy," Chapters, in: The Idea of Technological Innovation, chapter 7, pages 96-114, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Esteban, Miguel, 2014. "Implications of paradigm shift in Japan’s electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 424-434.
    17. Taljegard, M. & Göransson, L. & Odenberger, M. & Johnsson, F., 2019. "Impacts of electric vehicles on the electricity generation portfolio – A Scandinavian-German case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1637-1650.
    18. Chapman, Andrew J. & Itaoka, Kenshi, 2018. "Energy transition to a future low-carbon energy society in Japan's liberalizing electricity market: Precedents, policies and factors of successful transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2019-2027.
    19. ., 2020. "Reforming monetary policy for a normal future," Chapters, in: After Brexit, What Next?, chapter 6, pages 119-126, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2017. "Assessment of post-Fukushima renewable energy policy in Japan's nation-wide power grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 594-611.
    21. Eichman, Joshua D. & Mueller, Fabian & Tarroja, Brian & Schell, Lori Smith & Samuelsen, Scott, 2013. "Exploration of the integration of renewable resources into California's electric system using the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HiGRID) tool," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 353-363.
    22. Felgenhauer, Markus F. & Pellow, Matthew A. & Benson, Sally M. & Hamacher, Thomas, 2016. "Evaluating co-benefits of battery and fuel cell vehicles in a community in California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 360-368.
    23. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana, 2014. "Post-disaster resilience of a 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 756-764.
    24. Esteban, Miguel & Zhang, Qi & Utama, Agya & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N., 2010. "Methodology to estimate the output of a dual solar-wind renewable energy system in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7793-7802, December.
    25. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2020. "Macroeconomic Equilibriums, Crises and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2020:21, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    26. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Bricker, Jeremy & Farzaneh, Hooman & Djalilova, Nigora & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Takagi, Hiroshi & Roeber, Volker, 2018. "100% renewable energy system in Japan: Smoothening and ancillary services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 698-707.
    27. Pedersen, Tim T. & Victoria, Marta & Rasmussen, Morten G. & Andresen, Gorm B., 2021. "Modeling all alternative solutions for highly renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wiktor Hebda & Matúš Mišík, 2024. "In Search of Energy Security: Nuclear Energy Development in the Visegrad Group Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Xiangyu Du & Wuyang Xie & Weimin Guan, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Energy transition in sport and public facilities: pioneering sustainable economic pathways," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Hou Jiang & Ning Lu & Xuecheng Wang, 2023. "Assessing Carbon Reduction Potential of Rooftop PV in China through Remote Sensing Data-Driven Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Jiang, Hou & Zhang, Xiaotong & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang & Zhou, Chenghu, 2023. "High-resolution analysis of rooftop photovoltaic potential based on hourly generation simulations and load profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Bricker, Jeremy & Farzaneh, Hooman & Djalilova, Nigora & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Takagi, Hiroshi & Roeber, Volker, 2018. "100% renewable energy system in Japan: Smoothening and ancillary services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 698-707.
    2. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Investigating the economics of the power sector under high penetration of variable renewable energies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    3. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    4. Li, Yanxue & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun & Ushifusa, Yoshiaki, 2018. "The performance investigation of increasing share of photovoltaic generation in the public grid with pump hydro storage dispatch system, a case study in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 811-821.
    5. Bricker, Jeremy D. & Esteban, Miguel & Takagi, Hiroshi & Roeber, Volker, 2017. "Economic feasibility of tidal stream and wave power in post-Fukushima Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PA), pages 32-45.
    6. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1200-1219.
    7. Tarroja, Brian & Shaffer, Brendan P. & Samuelsen, Scott, 2018. "Resource portfolio design considerations for materially-efficient planning of 100% renewable electricity systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 460-471.
    8. Henning Meschede & Paul Bertheau & Siavash Khalili & Christian Breyer, 2022. "A review of 100% renewable energy scenarios on islands," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(6), November.
    9. Mahmoud M. Gamil & Makoto Sugimura & Akito Nakadomari & Tomonobu Senjyu & Harun Or Rashid Howlader & Hiroshi Takahashi & Ashraf M. Hemeida, 2020. "Optimal Sizing of a Real Remote Japanese Microgrid with Sea Water Electrolysis Plant Under Time-Based Demand Response Programs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Anshuman Chaube & Andrew Chapman & Yosuke Shigetomi & Kathryn Huff & James Stubbins, 2020. "The Role of Hydrogen in Achieving Long Term Japanese Energy System Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Bessi, Alessandro & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2021. "The role of gas on future perspectives of renewable energy diffusion: Bridging technology or lock-in?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Li, Aitong & Xu, Yuan & Shiroyama, Hideaki, 2019. "Solar lobby and energy transition in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana, 2014. "Post-disaster resilience of a 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 756-764.
    14. Kuriyama, Akihisa & Abe, Naoya, 2021. "Decarbonisation of the power sector to engender a ‘Just transition’ in Japan: Quantifying local employment impacts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Maria Taljegard & Lisa Göransson & Mikael Odenberger & Filip Johnsson, 2019. "Electric Vehicles as Flexibility Management Strategy for the Electricity System—A Comparison between Different Regions of Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Hisao Kibune, 2019. "Regulatory reform of energy and economic growth in Japan," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 27-41, January.
    17. Yuyama, Ayumi & Kajitani, Yoshio & Shoji, Gaku, 2018. "Simulation of operational reliability of thermal power plants during a power crisis: Are we underestimating power shortage risk?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 901-913.
    18. Portugal-Pereira, J. & Ferreira, P. & Cunha, J. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R. & Araújo, M., 2018. "Better late than never, but never late is better: Risk assessment of nuclear power construction projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 158-166.
    19. Ziyi Wang & Zengqiao Chen & Cuiping Ma & Ronald Wennersten & Qie Sun, 2022. "Nationwide Evaluation of Urban Energy System Resilience in China Using a Comprehensive Index Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    20. Zaijing Gong & Dapeng Liang, 2017. "A resilience framework for safety management of fossil fuel power plant," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1081-1095, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:328:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922011096. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.