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Implications of paradigm shift in Japan’s electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment

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  • Portugal-Pereira, Joana
  • Esteban, Miguel

Abstract

The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation security of supply under different energy portfolios in Japan in a post-3/11 context. A baseline and four alternative scenarios were designed assuming different shares of fossil fuel and nuclear thermal power and renewables in a 2030 timeframe. The analysis revealed that expanding endogenous energy resources together with a reduction of nuclear power and fossil fuel technologies appears to be a promising strategy to enhance electricity security of supply. Under this strategy imported fossil fuel dependence would decrease to 69.3%, whereas environmental impacts would decline 15–22%, compared to pre-Fukushima levels (baseline scenario). However, an immediate transition to grid-connected renewable energies is not realistic and would increase stress on the system reliability in the short-term, given infrastructure and technical constraints. Investment should be channelised to develop storage and back-up systems, as well as de-centralisation of supply systems to increase energy system resilience and security of supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Esteban, Miguel, 2014. "Implications of paradigm shift in Japan’s electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 424-434.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:424-434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.024
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