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How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: The case of hydrogen electrolyzers

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  • Ruhnau, Oliver

Abstract

Wind and solar energy are often expected to fall victim to their own success: the higher their share in electricity generation, the more their revenue in electricity markets (their “market value”) declines. While market values may converge to zero in conventional power systems, this study argues that “green” hydrogen production can effectively and permanently halt the decline by adding flexible electricity demand in low-price hours. To support this argument, this article further develops the merit order model and uses price duration curves to include flexible hydrogen electrolysis and to derive an analytical formula for the minimum market value of renewables in the long-term market equilibrium. This hydrogen-induced minimum market value is quantified for a wide range of parameters using Monte Carlo simulations and complemented with results from a more detailed numerical electricity market model. It is shown that—due to flexible hydrogen production alone—market values across Europe will likely stabilize above €19 ± 9 MWh−1 for solar energy and above €27 ± 8MWh−1 for wind energy in 2050 (annual mean estimate ± standard deviation). This is in the range of the projected levelized cost of renewables, and other types of flexible electricity demand may further increase renewable market values. Market-based renewables may hence be within reach.

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  • Ruhnau, Oliver, 2022. "How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: The case of hydrogen electrolyzers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:307:y:2022:i:c:s0306261921014641
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118194
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruhnau, Oliver & Schiele, Johanna, 2022. "Flexible green hydrogen: Economic benefits without increasing emissions," EconStor Preprints 253267, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Casas Ferrús, M. Nieves & Ruhnau, Oliver & Madlener, Reinhard, 2023. "Portfolio Effects in Green Hydrogen Production Under Temporal Matching Requirements," FCN Working Papers 18/2023, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    3. Andrea Dumančić & Nela Vlahinić Lenz & Lahorko Wagmann, 2024. "Profitability Model of Green Hydrogen Production on an Existing Wind Power Plant Location," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Jorge Sousa & Inês Azevedo & Cristina Camus & Luís Mendes & Carla Viveiros & Filipe Barata, 2024. "Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors with Renewable Hydrogen: A Real Case Application to the Ceramics Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Julian Radek & Marco Sebastian Breder & Christoph Weber, 2024. "Hydrogen in the European power sector – A case study on the impacts of regulatory frameworks for green hydrogen," EWL Working Papers 2402, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Jul 2024.
    6. Squadrito, Gaetano & Maggio, Gaetano & Nicita, Agatino, 2023. "The green hydrogen revolution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Bucksteeg, Michael & Wiedmann, Michael & Pöstges, Arne & Haller, Markus & Böttger, Diana & Ruhnau, Oliver & Schmitz, Richard, 2022. "The transformation of integrated electricity and heat systems—Assessing mid-term policies using a model comparison approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    8. Ruhnau, Oliver & Schiele, Johanna, 2023. "Flexible green hydrogen: The effect of relaxing simultaneity requirements on project design, economics, and power sector emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Bucksteeg, Michael & Mikurda, Jennifer & Weber, Christoph, 2023. "Integration of power-to-gas into electricity markets during the ramp-up phase—Assessing the role of carbon pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Ruhnau, O. & Bucksteeg, M. & Ritter, D. & Schmitz, R. & Böttger, D. & Koch, M. & Pöstges, A. & Wiedmann, M. & Hirth, L., 2022. "Why electricity market models yield different results: Carbon pricing in a model-comparison experiment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    11. Pöstges, Arne & Bucksteeg, Michael & Ruhnau, Oliver & Böttger, Diana & Haller, Markus & Künle, Eglantine & Ritter, David & Schmitz, Richard & Wiedmann, Michael, 2022. "Phasing out coal: An impact analysis comparing five large-scale electricity market models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    12. Andrea Dumančić & Nela Vlahinić Lenz & Goran Majstrović, 2023. "Can Hydrogen Production Be Economically Viable on the Existing Gas-Fired Power Plant Location? New Empirical Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, April.
    13. Wang, Shuoshuo & Tuo, Yongxiao & Zhu, Xiaoli & Li, Fulai & Bai, Zhang & Gu, Yucheng, 2024. "Systematic assessment for an integrated hydrogen approach towards the cross-regional application considering solar thermochemical and methanol carrier11The short version of the paper was presented at ," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    14. Jimenez, I. Sanchez & Ribó-Pérez, D. & Cvetkovic, M. & Kochems, J. & Schimeczek, C. & de Vries, L.J., 2024. "Can an energy only market enable resource adequacy in a decarbonized power system? A co-simulation with two agent-based-models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    15. Ruhnau, Oliver & Schiele, Johanna, 2022. "Flexible green hydrogen: Economic benefits without increasing power sector emissions," EconStor Preprints 258999, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Millinger, M. & Reichenberg, L. & Hedenus, F. & Berndes, G. & Zeyen, E. & Brown, T., 2022. "Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    17. Christoph Loschan & Daniel Schwabeneder & Matthias Maldet & Georg Lettner & Hans Auer, 2023. "Hydrogen as Short-Term Flexibility and Seasonal Storage in a Sector-Coupled Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-35, July.
    18. Yuan, Yi & Ding, Tao & Chang, Xinyue & Jia, Wenhao & Xue, Yixun, 2024. "A distributed multi-objective optimization method for scheduling of integrated electricity and hydrogen systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    19. Hirth, Lion & Khanna, Tarun M. & Ruhnau, Oliver, 2024. "How aggregate electricity demand responds to hourly wholesale price fluctuations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Hirth, Lion & Ruhnau, Oliver & Sgarlato, Raffaele, 2021. "The European Electricity Market Model EMMA - Model Description," EconStor Preprints 244592, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    21. Roach, Martin & Meeus, Leonardo, 2023. "An energy system model to study the impact of combining carbon pricing with direct support for renewable gases," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    22. Schlund, David & Theile, Philipp, 2021. "Simultaneity of green energy and hydrogen production: Analysing the dispatch of a grid-connected electrolyser," EWI Working Papers 2021-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    23. Schlund, David & Theile, Philipp, 2022. "Simultaneity of green energy and hydrogen production: Analysing the dispatch of a grid-connected electrolyser," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    24. Liebensteiner, Mario & Naumann, Fabian, 2022. "Can carbon pricing counteract renewable energies’ cannibalization problem?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    25. Gharibvand, Hossein & Gharehpetian, G.B. & Anvari-Moghaddam, A., 2024. "A survey on microgrid flexibility resources, evaluation metrics and energy storage effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable energy; Hydrogen electrolysis; Electricity market; Electricity economics; Integrated energy system; Flexible electricity demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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