IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v113y2017icp1111-1121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The marketability of variable renewable energy in liberalized electricity markets – An empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zipp, Alexander

Abstract

The price effect of the rising share of renewable electricity, which is called ‘merit-order-effect’, leads to noticeable changes in the German power industry and debates about the electricity market design. This paper estimates the merit-order-effect induced by variable renewable energy in the German-Austrian electricity sector with a multivariate regression model. The research focus lies on the impact of the estimated effects on the marketability of variable renewable electricity generation. The results show a systematic decline of the average market revenues for wind and photovoltaic plants in the period from January 2011 to December 2013. Current market data shows a continuation of this trend into 2016. According to the German long term goals for the use of renewables, wind and solar power will play a crucial role in the future electricity generation mix. If investments in these technologies will be profitable without any regulatory remuneration mechanisms in addition to the market revenues, depends on the further cost degression and the development of the merit-order-effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Zipp, Alexander, 2017. "The marketability of variable renewable energy in liberalized electricity markets – An empirical analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1111-1121.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1111-1121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148117305761
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.072?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
    2. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0542 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Market Value of Variable Renewables. The Effect of Solar and Wind Power Variability on their Relative Price," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/36, European University Institute.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Manuel Frondel & Stephan Sommer & Colin Vance, 2015. "The burden of Germanyùs energy transition: An empirical analysis of distributional effects," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(c), pages 89-99.
    7. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2010. "Economic impacts from the promotion of renewable energy technologies: The German experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4048-4056, August.
    8. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    9. Ambec, Stefan & Crampes, Claude, 2012. "Electricity provision with intermittent sources of energy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 319-336.
    10. Cludius, Johanna & Hermann, Hauke & Matthes, Felix Chr. & Graichen, Verena, 2014. "The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and distributional implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 302-313.
    11. Leijon, Mats & Skoglund, Annika & Waters, Rafael & Rehn, Alf & Lindahl, Marcus, 2010. "On the physics of power, energy and economics of renewable electric energy sources – Part I," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1729-1734.
    12. Gawel, Erik & Purkus, Alexandra, 2013. "Promoting the market and system integration of renewable energies through premium schemes: A case study of the German market premium," UFZ Discussion Papers 4/2013, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    13. Grau, Thilo, 2014. "Responsive feed-in tariff adjustment to dynamic technology development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 36-46.
    14. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    15. Newbery, David, 2010. "Market design for a large share of wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3131-3134, July.
    16. Würzburg, Klaas & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2013. "Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 159-171.
    17. Kaldellis, John K. & Zafirakis, D., 2011. "The wind energy (r)evolution: A short review of a long history," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1887-1901.
    18. Tveten, Åsa Grytli & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & Martinsen, Thomas & Hvarnes, Håvard, 2013. "Solar feed-in tariffs and the merit order effect: A study of the German electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 761-770.
    19. Henriot, Arthur & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2013. "Melting-pots and salad bowls: The current debate on electricity market design for integration of intermittent RES," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 57-64.
    20. del Río, Pablo, 2012. "The dynamic efficiency of feed-in tariffs: The impact of different design elements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 139-151.
    21. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    22. Hirth, Lion & Ueckerdt, Falko & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Integration costs revisited – An economic framework for wind and solar variability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 925-939.
    23. Skoglund, Annika & Leijon, Mats & Rehn, Alf & Lindahl, Marcus & Waters, Rafael, 2010. "On the physics of power, energy and economics of renewable electric energy sources - Part II," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1735-1740.
    24. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    25. Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2014. "Residual load, renewable surplus generation and storage requirements in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 65-79.
    26. Koch, Nicolas & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?—New evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 676-685.
    27. Lehmann, Paul & Gawel, Erik, 2013. "Why should support schemes for renewable electricity complement the EU emissions trading scheme?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 597-607.
    28. Zipp, Alexander, 2015. "Revenue prospects of photovoltaic in Germany—Influence opportunities by variation of the plant orientation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-97.
    29. Geoffrey Heal, 2009. "The Economics of Renewable Energy," NBER Working Papers 15081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Jean Michel Glachant & Arthur Henriot, 2013. "Melting-pots and salad bowls: the current debate on electricity market design for RES integration," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1354, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    31. Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2013. "Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1151-1163.
    32. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    33. Gelabert, Liliana & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2011. "An ex-post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on Spanish electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 59-65.
    34. Couture, Toby & Gagnon, Yves, 2010. "An analysis of feed-in tariff remuneration models: Implications for renewable energy investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 955-965, February.
    35. Gawel, Erik & Purkus, Alexandra, 2013. "Promoting the market and system integration of renewable energies through premium schemes—A case study of the German market premium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 599-609.
    36. Lesser, Jonathan A. & Su, Xuejuan, 2008. "Design of an economically efficient feed-in tariff structure for renewable energy development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 981-990, March.
    37. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    38. Severin Borenstein, 2012. "The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 67-92, Winter.
    39. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
    40. Tafarte, Philip & Das, Subhashree & Eichhorn, Marcus & Thrän, Daniela, 2014. "Small adaptations, big impacts: Options for an optimized mix of variable renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 80-92.
    41. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
    42. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    43. Hirth, Lion & Müller, Simon, 2016. "System-friendly wind power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 51-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
    2. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.
    3. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 621-628.
    4. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Winkler, Jenny & Gaio, Alberto & Pfluger, Benjamin & Ragwitz, Mario, 2016. "Impact of renewables on electricity markets – Do support schemes matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 157-167.
    6. Hu, Jing & Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Worrell, Ernst & van den Broek, Machteld, 2018. "Identifying barriers to large-scale integration of variable renewable electricity into the electricity market: A literature review of market design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2181-2195.
    7. López Prol, Javier & Steininger, Karl W. & Zilberman, David, 2020. "The cannibalization effect of wind and solar in the California wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Eising, Manuel & Hobbie, Hannes & Möst, Dominik, 2020. "Future wind and solar power market values in Germany — Evidence of spatial and technological dependencies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Zipp, Alexander, 2015. "Revenue prospects of photovoltaic in Germany—Influence opportunities by variation of the plant orientation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-97.
    10. Odeh, Rodrigo Pérez & Watts, David, 2019. "Impacts of wind and solar spatial diversification on its market value: A case study of the Chilean electricity market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 442-461.
    11. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
    12. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    13. Craig, Michael T. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Williams, Nathaniel J. & Severnini, Edson, 2018. "A retrospective analysis of the market price response to distributed photovoltaic generation in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 394-403.
    14. Gürtler, Marc & Paulsen, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of wind and solar power forecasts on day-ahead and intraday electricity prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 150-162.
    15. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2020. "The impact of the integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity price formation: is the Merit-Order Effect occurring in Portugal?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. May, Nils, 2017. "The impact of wind power support schemes on technology choices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 343-354.
    17. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    18. Ländner, Eva-Maria & Märtz, Alexandra & Schöpf, Michael & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2019. "From energy legislation to investment determination: Shaping future electricity markets with different flexibility options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1100-1110.
    19. Bernath, Christiane & Deac, Gerda & Sensfuß, Frank, 2021. "Impact of sector coupling on the market value of renewable energies – A model-based scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    20. Lawrence Haar, 2021. "Design Flaws in United Kingdom Renewable Energy Support Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1111-1121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.