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Analyzing the competitiveness of low-carbon drive-technologies in road-freight: A total cost of ownership analysis in Europe

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  • Noll, Bessie
  • del Val, Santiago
  • Schmidt, Tobias S.
  • Steffen, Bjarne

Abstract

In light of the Paris Agreement, road-freight represents a critically difficult-to-abate sector. In order to meet the ambitious European transport sector emissions reduction targets, a rapid transition to zero-carbon road-freight is necessary. However, limited policy assessments indicate where and how to appropriately intervene in this sector. To support policy-makers in accelerating the zero-carbon road-freight transition, this paper examines the relative cost competitiveness between commercial vehicles of varying alternative drive-technologies through a total cost of ownership (TCO) assessment. We identify key parameters that, when targeted, enable the uptake of these more sustainable niche technologies. The assessment is based on a newly compiled database of cost parameters which were triangulated through expert interviews. The results show that cost competitiveness for low- or zero-emission niche technologies in certain application segments and European countries is exhibited already today. In particular, we find battery electric vehicles to show great promise in the light- and medium-duty segments, but also in the heavy-duty long-haul segments in countries that have enacted targeted policy measures. Three TCO parameters drive this competitiveness: tolls, fuel costs, and CAPEX subsidies. Based on our analysis, we propose that policy-makers target OPEX before CAPEX parameters as well utilize a mix of policy interventions to ensure greater reach, increased efficiency, and increased policy flexibility.

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  • Noll, Bessie & del Val, Santiago & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Steffen, Bjarne, 2022. "Analyzing the competitiveness of low-carbon drive-technologies in road-freight: A total cost of ownership analysis in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:306:y:2022:i:pb:s0306261921013659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118079
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    4. Teng, Fei & Zhang, Qi & Chen, Siyuan & Wang, Ge & Huang, Zhenyue & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Comprehensive effects of policy mixes on the diffusion of heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks in China considering technology learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Aleksander Jagiełło & Marcin Wołek & Wojciech Bizon, 2023. "Comparison of Tender Criteria for Electric and Diesel Buses in Poland—Has the Ongoing Revolution in Urban Transport Been Overlooked?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Martin, Jonas & Neumann, Anne & Ødegård, Anders, 2023. "Renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels versus fossil fuels for trucking, shipping and aviation: A holistic cost model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    7. Zhu, Min & Dong, Peiwu & Ju, Yanbing & Li, Jiajun & Ran, Lun, 2023. "Effects of government subsidies on heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck penetration: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    8. Mariano Gallo & Mario Marinelli, 2022. "The Impact of Fuel Cell Electric Freight Vehicles on Fuel Consumption and CO 2 Emissions: The Case of Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Bakker, J. & Lopez Alvarez, J.A. & Buijs, P., 2024. "A network design perspective on the adoption potential of electric road systems in early development stages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    10. Mariano Gallo & Mario Marinelli, 2023. "The Use of Hydrogen for Traction in Freight Transport: Estimating the Reduction in Fuel Consumption and Emissions in a Regional Context," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, January.

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