IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v268y2020ics030626192030489x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference system-based algorithm for time series forecasting applied to energy consumption prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Jallal, Mohammed Ali
  • González-Vidal, Aurora
  • Skarmeta, Antonio F.
  • Chabaa, Samira
  • Zeroual, Abdelouhab

Abstract

The accuracy of the prediction of buildings’ energy consumption is being tackled using existing artificial intelligence techniques. However, there is a lack of effort on the development of new techniques for solving that problem and, therefore, achieving higher performance, which is important for the efficient management of energy in many levels. This study addresses this gap by proposing a new hybrid machine learning algorithm that incorporates the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model with a new version of the firefly algorithm denominated as the gender-difference firefly algorithm. We expanded the search space diversification to increase the accuracy on the prediction and adopted the autoregressive process in order to approximate the chaotic behavior of the consumption time series. A new layer, denominated as non-working time adaptation was also integrated so as to decrease the fast variability of the predictions during non-working periods of time. We have applied our algorithm for the consumption prediction on 1 h, 2 h and 3 h ahead horizons. We have obtained improvements on the MAPE and R coefficient when compared with state-of-the-art publications in both a private dataset from the Faculty of Chemistry, located in the city of Murcia, Spain and a public dataset of the consumption of a Retail building located in California, United States. We also show our method’s performance in five more buildings. Our results demonstrate the robustness and the accuracy of our proposal when compared to the traditional adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system models and also to the different predictive techniques implemented in several pieces of literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jallal, Mohammed Ali & González-Vidal, Aurora & Skarmeta, Antonio F. & Chabaa, Samira & Zeroual, Abdelouhab, 2020. "A hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference system-based algorithm for time series forecasting applied to energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:268:y:2020:i:c:s030626192030489x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114977
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192030489X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114977?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abonyi, János & Andersen, Hans & Nagy, Lajos & Szeifert, Ferenc, 1999. "Inverse fuzzy-process-model based direct adaptive control," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 119-132.
    2. Lü, Xiaoshu & Lu, Tao & Kibert, Charles J. & Viljanen, Martti, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for heterogeneous buildings using a physical–statistical approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 261-275.
    3. Lu, Yuehong & Wang, Shengwei & Sun, Yongjun & Yan, Chengchu, 2015. "Optimal scheduling of buildings with energy generation and thermal energy storage under dynamic electricity pricing using mixed-integer nonlinear programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 49-58.
    4. Jain, Rishee K. & Smith, Kevin M. & Culligan, Patricia J. & Taylor, John E., 2014. "Forecasting energy consumption of multi-family residential buildings using support vector regression: Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial monitoring granularity on performance accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 168-178.
    5. Wei, Yixuan & Xia, Liang & Pan, Song & Wu, Jinshun & Zhang, Xingxing & Han, Mengjie & Zhang, Weiya & Xie, Jingchao & Li, Qingping, 2019. "Prediction of occupancy level and energy consumption in office building using blind system identification and neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 276-294.
    6. Cassettari, Lucia & Bendato, Ilaria & Mosca, Marco & Mosca, Roberto, 2017. "Energy Resources Intelligent Management using on line real-time simulation: A decision support tool for sustainable manufacturing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 841-851.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bingqing Huang & Haonan Zheng & Xinbo Guo & Yi Yang & Ximing Liu, 2021. "A Novel Model Based on DA-RNN Network and Skip Gated Recurrent Neural Network for Periodic Time Series Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Ihab Taleb & Guillaume Guerard & Frédéric Fauberteau & Nga Nguyen, 2022. "A Flexible Deep Learning Method for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Zhang, Yijie & Ma, Tao & Yang, Hongxing, 2022. "Grid-connected photovoltaic battery systems: A comprehensive review and perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    4. Haizhou Fang & Hongwei Tan & Ningfang Dai & Zhaohui Liu & Risto Kosonen, 2023. "Hourly Building Energy Consumption Prediction Using a Training Sample Selection Method Based on Key Feature Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Sachin Kahawala & Daswin De Silva & Seppo Sierla & Damminda Alahakoon & Rashmika Nawaratne & Evgeny Osipov & Andrew Jennings & Valeriy Vyatkin, 2021. "Robust Multi-Step Predictor for Electricity Markets with Real-Time Pricing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Peng, Jieyang & Kimmig, Andreas & Niu, Zhibin & Wang, Jiahai & Liu, Xiufeng & Ovtcharova, Jivka, 2021. "A flexible potential-flow model based high resolution spatiotemporal energy demand forecasting framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    7. Saidjon Shiralievich Tavarov & Pavel Matrenin & Murodbek Safaraliev & Mihail Senyuk & Svetlana Beryozkina & Inga Zicmane, 2023. "Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Household Consumers Using Fuzzy Logic Based on the Development Plan of the Power System of the Republic of Tajikistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Yu, Yang & Wu, Shibo & Yu, Jianxing & Xu, Ya & Song, Lin & Xu, Weipeng, 2022. "A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework for offshore wind turbine selection: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    9. Tsao, Yu-Chung & Thanh, Vo-Van & Lu, Jye-Chyi, 2021. "Sustainable advanced distribution management system design considering differential pricing schemes and carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    10. Muideen Adegoke & Alaka Hafiz & Saheed Ajayi & Razak Olu-Ajayi, 2022. "Application of Multilayer Extreme Learning Machine for Efficient Building Energy Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Umar Javed & Khalid Ijaz & Muhammad Jawad & Ejaz A. Ansari & Noman Shabbir & Lauri Kütt & Oleksandr Husev, 2021. "Exploratory Data Analysis Based Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    12. Dalia Mohammed Talat Ebrahim Ali & Violeta Motuzienė & Rasa Džiugaitė-Tumėnienė, 2024. "AI-Driven Innovations in Building Energy Management Systems: A Review of Potential Applications and Energy Savings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-35, August.
    13. Li, Tao & Liu, Xiangyu & Li, Guannan & Wang, Xing & Ma, Jiangqiaoyu & Xu, Chengliang & Mao, Qianjun, 2024. "A systematic review and comprehensive analysis of building occupancy prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Àlex Alonso & Jordi de la Hoz & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Pep Salas & José Matas, 2020. "A Comprehensive Model for the Design of a Microgrid under Regulatory Constraints Using Synthetical Data Generation and Stochastic Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Chakraborty, Debaditya & Alam, Arafat & Chaudhuri, Saptarshi & Başağaoğlu, Hakan & Sulbaran, Tulio & Langar, Sandeep, 2021. "Scenario-based prediction of climate change impacts on building cooling energy consumption with explainable artificial intelligence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    3. R. Rueda & M. P. Cuéllar & M. Molina-Solana & Y. Guo & M. C. Pegalajar, 2019. "Generalised Regression Hypothesis Induction for Energy Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Raza, Muhammad Qamar & Nadarajah, Mithulananthan & Ekanayake, Chandima, 2017. "Demand forecast of PV integrated bioclimatic buildings using ensemble framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1626-1638.
    5. Xiwen Cui & Shaojun E & Dongxiao Niu & Dongyu Wang & Mingyu Li, 2021. "An Improved Forecasting Method and Application of China’s Energy Consumption under the Carbon Peak Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    7. Al-Sumaiti, Ameena Saad & Salama, Magdy M.A. & El-Moursi, Mohamed, 2017. "Enabling electricity access in developing countries: A probabilistic weather driven house based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 531-548.
    8. Wang, Wei & Hong, Tianzhen & Xu, Xiaodong & Chen, Jiayu & Liu, Ziang & Xu, Ning, 2019. "Forecasting district-scale energy dynamics through integrating building network and long short-term memory learning algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 217-230.
    9. Abdulkerim Karaaslan & Mesliha Gezen, 2017. "Forecasting of Turkey s Sectoral Energy Demand by Using Fuzzy Grey Regression Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 67-77.
    10. Mirfin, Anthony & Xiao, Xun & Jack, Michael W., 2024. "TOWST: A physics-informed statistical model for building energy consumption with solar gain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    11. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    12. Tang, Rui & Li, Hangxin & Wang, Shengwei, 2019. "A game theory-based decentralized control strategy for power demand management of building cluster using thermal mass and energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 809-820.
    13. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    14. Xavier Serrano-Guerrero & Guillermo Escrivá-Escrivá & Santiago Luna-Romero & Jean-Michel Clairand, 2020. "A Time-Series Treatment Method to Obtain Electrical Consumption Patterns for Anomalies Detection Improvement in Electrical Consumption Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
    15. Ma, Jun & Cheng, Jack C.P., 2016. "Identifying the influential features on the regional energy use intensity of residential buildings based on Random Forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 193-201.
    16. Eissa, M.M., 2018. "First time real time incentive demand response program in smart grid with “i-Energy” management system with different resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 607-621.
    17. Li, Shuangqi & He, Hongwen & Li, Jianwei, 2019. "Big data driven lithium-ion battery modeling method based on SDAE-ELM algorithm and data pre-processing technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1259-1273.
    18. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    19. Xiaoyu Xu & Chun Chang & Xinxin Guo & Mingzhi Zhao, 2023. "Experimental and Numerical Study of the Ice Storage Process and Material Properties of Ice Storage Coils," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:268:y:2020:i:c:s030626192030489x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.