IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i4p3725-d1072067.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Household Consumers Using Fuzzy Logic Based on the Development Plan of the Power System of the Republic of Tajikistan

Author

Listed:
  • Saidjon Shiralievich Tavarov

    (Institute of Engineering and Technology, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Prospekt, Chelyabinsk 454080, Russia)

  • Pavel Matrenin

    (Ural Power Engineering Institute, Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg 620002, Russia)

  • Murodbek Safaraliev

    (Department of Automated Electrical Systems, Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg 620002, Russia)

  • Mihail Senyuk

    (Department of Automated Electrical Systems, Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg 620002, Russia)

  • Svetlana Beryozkina

    (College of Engineering and Technology, American University of the Middle East, Kuwait)

  • Inga Zicmane

    (Faculty of Electrical and Environmental Engineering, Riga Technical University, LV-1048 Riga, Latvia)

Abstract

Seasonal fluctuations in electricity consumption, and uneven loading of supply lines reduce not only the energy efficiency of networks, but also contribute to a decrease in the service life of elements of power supply systems. To solve the problem of forecasting power consumption, it is proposed to use the theory of fuzzy sets to assess the effective development of the energy system of the Republic of Tajikistan. According to the statistical data of power consumption for the previous period, a fuzzy logic model with membership functions is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate consumer satisfaction using the criteria unsatisfactory, satisfactory, conditionally satisfactory, and satisfactory, as well as the efficiency of the consumption mode of compliance using the criteria high, medium, and low, allowing the evaluation of the efficiency plan for the development of the energy system of the Republic of Tajikistan. To obtain and set more accurate data on electricity consumption, calculations were made for the winter period of the year. Based on the proposed calculation model of fuzzy logic, a quantitative component of electricity consumption, the corresponding satisfaction of the consumer, and the efficiency of the regime for nine cities of the Republic of Tajikistan were proposed in the form of diagrams of seasonal electricity consumption. The obtained seasonal power consumption makes it possible to improve the accuracy of estimating power consumption, thereby equalizing the balance of consumption and generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Saidjon Shiralievich Tavarov & Pavel Matrenin & Murodbek Safaraliev & Mihail Senyuk & Svetlana Beryozkina & Inga Zicmane, 2023. "Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Household Consumers Using Fuzzy Logic Based on the Development Plan of the Power System of the Republic of Tajikistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3725-:d:1072067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3725/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3725/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tran, Duc-Hoc & Luong, Duc-Long & Chou, Jui-Sheng, 2020. "Nature-inspired metaheuristic ensemble model for forecasting energy consumption in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Yajing Gao & Xiaojie Zhou & Jiafeng Ren & Zheng Zhao & Fushen Xue, 2018. "Electricity Purchase Optimization Decision Based on Data Mining and Bayesian Game," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    4. Anvari Ghulomzoda & Aminjon Gulakhmadov & Alexander Fishov & Murodbek Safaraliev & Xi Chen & Khusrav Rasulzoda & Kamol Gulyamov & Javod Ahyoev, 2020. "Recloser-Based Decentralized Control of the Grid with Distributed Generation in the Lahsh District of the Rasht Grid in Tajikistan, Central Asia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Zhao, Yang, 2017. "A short-term building cooling load prediction method using deep learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 222-233.
    6. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    7. Jallal, Mohammed Ali & González-Vidal, Aurora & Skarmeta, Antonio F. & Chabaa, Samira & Zeroual, Abdelouhab, 2020. "A hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference system-based algorithm for time series forecasting applied to energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    8. Qianli Zhou & Hongming Mo & Yong Deng, 2020. "A New Divergence Measure of Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets Based on Belief Function and Its Application in Medical Diagnosis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Wei, Yixuan & Xia, Liang & Pan, Song & Wu, Jinshun & Zhang, Xingxing & Han, Mengjie & Zhang, Weiya & Xie, Jingchao & Li, Qingping, 2019. "Prediction of occupancy level and energy consumption in office building using blind system identification and neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 276-294.
    10. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    11. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liang, Hejun & Pirouzi, Sasan, 2024. "Energy management system based on economic Flexi-reliable operation for the smart distribution network including integrated energy system of hydrogen storage and renewable sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    2. Wang, Zeyu & Liu, Jian & Zhang, Yuanxin & Yuan, Hongping & Zhang, Ruixue & Srinivasan, Ravi S., 2021. "Practical issues in implementing machine-learning models for building energy efficiency: Moving beyond obstacles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Karol Bot & Samira Santos & Inoussa Laouali & Antonio Ruano & Maria da Graça Ruano, 2021. "Design of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Home Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-37, November.
    4. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    5. Chen, Yibo & Zhang, Fengyi & Berardi, Umberto, 2020. "Day-ahead prediction of hourly subentry energy consumption in the building sector using pattern recognition algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    6. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    8. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Yan, Chengchu & Liu, Chengliang & Li, Zhengdao & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A novel methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models based on interpretable machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1551-1560.
    9. Zou, Rongwei & Yang, Qiliang & Xing, Jianchun & Zhou, Qizhen & Xie, Liqiang & Chen, Wenjie, 2024. "Predicting the electric power consumption of office buildings based on dynamic and static hybrid data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    10. Haizhou Fang & Hongwei Tan & Ningfang Dai & Zhaohui Liu & Risto Kosonen, 2023. "Hourly Building Energy Consumption Prediction Using a Training Sample Selection Method Based on Key Feature Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.
    11. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Gao, Lei & Liu, Tianyuan & Cao, Tao & Hwang, Yunho & Radermacher, Reinhard, 2021. "Comparing deep learning models for multi energy vectors prediction on multiple types of building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    14. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    15. Sarhang Sorguli & Husam Rjoub, 2023. "A Novel Energy Accounting Model Using Fuzzy Restricted Boltzmann Machine—Recurrent Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
    16. Li, Tao & Liu, Xiangyu & Li, Guannan & Wang, Xing & Ma, Jiangqiaoyu & Xu, Chengliang & Mao, Qianjun, 2024. "A systematic review and comprehensive analysis of building occupancy prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A graph mining-based methodology for discovering and visualizing high-level knowledge for building energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Zhang, Liang & Wen, Jin & Li, Yanfei & Chen, Jianli & Ye, Yunyang & Fu, Yangyang & Livingood, William, 2021. "A review of machine learning in building load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    19. Lei, Lei & Shao, Suola & Liang, Lixia, 2024. "An evolutionary deep learning model based on EWKM, random forest algorithm, SSA and BiLSTM for building energy consumption prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    20. Shamim Akhtar & Muhamad Zahim Bin Sujod & Syed Sajjad Hussain Rizvi, 2022. "An Intelligent Data-Driven Approach for Electrical Energy Load Management Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3725-:d:1072067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.