IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v182y2016icp442-463.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Power system sensitivity to extreme hydrological conditions as studied using an integrated reservoir and power system dispatch model, the case of Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Demissie, Ashenafi A.
  • Solomon, A.A.

Abstract

Extreme weather events expose electricity industry to diverse risks. Global warming will increase vulnerability to extreme weathers, such as drought. In this paper, we examine the susceptibility of Ethiopian power systems to extreme hydrological conditions using an integrated hydro reservoir and power system dispatch model. The result shows that hydropower could help in achieving the least cost generation of electricity by 2017. However, the cost of electricity was found to significantly vary with various factors. It was found that, excluding cost of unserved energy, the low inflow scenario presents a situation where cost of electricity is approximately 4 times higher than the moderate inflow. Electricity price is currently cheap and stable due to governments pricing strategy. Consequently, the cost borne by the nation’s economy could be seen from annual cost of dispatch, which increases from approximately 1 billion USD per year at the reference scenario to about 4 Billion USD for the low inflow scenario. The dispatch cost will be above 8 folds if the cost of unserved energy is included. This shows that the power system is poorly resilient against climate change impact. Thus, we recommend that policymaking and planning focuses on transitioning to climate change adaptive system.

Suggested Citation

  • Demissie, Ashenafi A. & Solomon, A.A., 2016. "Power system sensitivity to extreme hydrological conditions as studied using an integrated reservoir and power system dispatch model, the case of Ethiopia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 442-463.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:182:y:2016:i:c:p:442-463
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916312041
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.106?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Solomon, A.A. & Faiman, D. & Meron, G., 2010. "Grid matching of large-scale wind energy conversion systems, alone and in tandem with large-scale photovoltaic systems: An Israeli case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7070-7081, November.
    2. Koch, Hagen & Vögele, Stefan, 2013. "Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation – Part I: Development of models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-51.
    3. Lehner, Bernhard & Czisch, Gregor & Vassolo, Sara, 2005. "The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 839-855, May.
    4. Alem, Yonas & Beyene, Abebe D. & Kohlin, Gunnar & Mekonnen, Alemu, 2013. "Household Fuel Choice in Urban Ethiopia: A Random Effects Multinomial Logit Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-12-efd, Resources for the Future.
    5. You, Gene Jiing-Yun & Ringler, Claudia, 2010. "Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 960, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Glotić, Arnel & Zamuda, Aleš, 2015. "Short-term combined economic and emission hydrothermal optimization by surrogate differential evolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 42-56.
    7. Solomon, A.A. & Kammen, Daniel M. & Callaway, D., 2014. "The role of large-scale energy storage design and dispatch in the power grid: A study of very high grid penetration of variable renewable resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 75-89.
    8. Paul Block & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia's Energy Needs Under a Changing Climate," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 476-488, August.
    9. Shadman, F. & Sadeghipour, S. & Moghavvemi, M. & Saidur, R., 2016. "Drought and energy security in key ASEAN countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 50-58.
    10. Solomon, A.A. & Kammen, Daniel M. & Callaway, D., 2016. "Investigating the impact of wind–solar complementarities on energy storage requirement and the corresponding supply reliability criteria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 130-145.
    11. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    2. Zhou, Yanlai & Guo, Shenglian & Chang, Fi-John & Xu, Chong-Yu, 2018. "Boosting hydropower output of mega cascade reservoirs using an evolutionary algorithm with successive approximation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1726-1739.
    3. Perera, A.T.D. & Hong, Tianzhen, 2023. "Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    5. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Fernandes, Gláucia & Gomes, Leonardo Lima & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira, 2018. "A risk-hedging tool for hydro power plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 370-378.
    7. Ioannis Pappis & Andreas Sahlberg & Tewodros Walle & Oliver Broad & Elusiyan Eludoyin & Mark Howells & Will Usher, 2021. "Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    8. Patro, Epari Ritesh & De Michele, Carlo & Avanzi, Francesco, 2018. "Future perspectives of run-of-the-river hydropower and the impact of glaciers’ shrinkage: The case of Italian Alps," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 699-713.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Curtailment-storage-penetration nexus in the energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1351-1368.
    2. Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Solar driven net zero emission electricity supply with negligible carbon cost: Israel as a case study for Sun Belt countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 87-104.
    3. Solomon, A.A. & Sahin, Hasret & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "The pitfall in designing future electrical power systems without considering energy return on investment in planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    4. Solomon, A.A. & Kammen, Daniel M. & Callaway, D., 2016. "Investigating the impact of wind–solar complementarities on energy storage requirement and the corresponding supply reliability criteria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 130-145.
    5. Philip Tafarte & Marcus Eichhorn & Daniela Thrän, 2019. "Capacity Expansion Pathways for a Wind and Solar Based Power Supply and the Impact of Advanced Technology—A Case Study for Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Copp, David A. & Nguyen, Tu A. & Byrne, Raymond H. & Chalamala, Babu R., 2022. "Optimal sizing of distributed energy resources for planning 100% renewable electric power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    7. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Gulagi, Ashish & Ram, Manish & Solomon, A.A. & Khan, Musharof & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 899-920.
    9. Bell, Andrew & Zhu, Tingju & Xie, Hua & Ringler, Claudia, 2014. "Climate–water interactions—Challenges for improved representation in integrated assessment models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 510-521.
    10. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    11. Chang-Gi Min & Mun-Kyeom Kim, 2017. "Impact of the Complementarity between Variable Generation Resources and Load on the Flexibility of the Korean Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Jane Ebinger & Walter Vergara, 2011. "Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2271.
    13. Guo, Yi & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Zheng, Xudong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Risk-averse day-ahead generation scheduling of hydro–wind–photovoltaic complementary systems considering the steady requirement of power delivery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    14. Zhang, Xiaoli & Cui, Xueqin & Li, Bo & Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia & Kammen, Daniel M & Zou, Ji & Wang, Ke, 2022. "Immediate actions on coal phaseout enable a just low-carbon transition in China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    15. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    16. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Findlay, Christopher & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2020. "Management adaptation to flood in Guangdong Province in China: Do property rights Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Huang, Qisheng & Xu, Yunjian & Courcoubetis, Costas, 2020. "Stackelberg competition between merchant and regulated storage investment in wholesale electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    18. Wang, Jiangjiang & Deng, Hongda & Qi, Xiaoling, 2022. "Cost-based site and capacity optimization of multi-energy storage system in the regional integrated energy networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    19. Jurasz, Jakub & Beluco, Alexandre & Canales, Fausto A., 2018. "The impact of complementarity on power supply reliability of small scale hybrid energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 737-743.
    20. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:182:y:2016:i:c:p:442-463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.