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Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia

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  • You, Gene Jiing-Yun
  • Ringler, Claudia

Abstract

Ethiopia is susceptible to frequent climate extremes such as disastrous droughts and floods. These disastrous climatic events, which have caused significant adverse effects on the country’s economy and society, are expected to become more pronounced in the future under climate change. To identify the potential threat of climate change to the Ethiopian economy, this study analyzes three major factors that are changing under global warming: water availability under higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, the impact of changing precipitation patterns on flooding, and the potential impact on crop production of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. These issues are analyzed based on an existing multi-market-sector model for the Ethiopian economy, with a focus on agriculture. Our analysis finds that the major impact of climate change on Ethiopia’s economy will result from more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrologic events, which cause losses in both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. To adapt to these long-term changes, Ethiopia should invest in enhanced water control to expand irrigation and improve flood protection.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Gene Jiing-Yun & Ringler, Claudia, 2010. "Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 960, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:960
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    2. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 8030, The World Bank Group.
    3. Nikos Alexandratos, 2005. "Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food, Agriculture, and Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(2), pages 237-258, June.
    4. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin, 2007. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia - An economy-wide model analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 205-228, April.
    5. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin & Ghautam, Madhur & Keough, James & Chamberlin, Jordan & You, Liangszi & Puetz, Detlev & Resnick, Danielle & Yu, Bingxin, 2005. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: a spatial, economy-wide model analysis for 2004-2015," DSGD discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.
    3. Demissie, Ashenafi A. & Solomon, A.A., 2016. "Power system sensitivity to extreme hydrological conditions as studied using an integrated reservoir and power system dispatch model, the case of Ethiopia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 442-463.
    4. Ragasa, Catherine & Sun, Yan & Bryan, Elizabeth & Abate, Caroline & Atlaw, Alumu & Keita, Mahamadou Namori, 2013. "Organizational and institutional issues in climate change adaptation and risk management: Insights from practitioners’ survey in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mali," IFPRI discussion papers 1279, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Benjamin F. Zaitchik & Belay Simane & Shahid Habib & Martha C. Anderson & Mutlu Ozdogan & Jeremy D. Foltz, 2012. "Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Role for Earth System Sciences," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Rampa, Alexis & Lovo, Stefania, 2023. "Revisiting the effects of the Ethiopian land tenure reform using satellite data. A focus on agricultural productivity, climate change mitigation and adaptation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    7. Foltz, Jeremy D. & Gars, Jared & Özdoğan, Mutlu & Simane, Belay & Zaitchik, Ben, 2013. "Weather and Welfare in Ethiopia," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150298, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Borgomeo, Edoardo & Vadheim, Bryan & Woldeyes, Firew B. & Alamirew, Tena & Tamru, Seneshaw & Charles, Katrina J. & Kebede, Seifu & Walker, Oliver, 2018. "The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 621-632.
    9. dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini, Angel & Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Horridge, Mark, 2016. "Water Demand Prospects in Brazil: A Sectoral Evaluation Using an Inter-Regional CGE Model," Conference papers 332699, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect; Climate change; Droughts; floods; Global warming; hydro-economic modeling; hydrologic events;
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