IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/960.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • You, Gene Jiing-Yun
  • Ringler, Claudia

Abstract

Ethiopia is susceptible to frequent climate extremes such as disastrous droughts and floods. These disastrous climatic events, which have caused significant adverse effects on the country’s economy and society, are expected to become more pronounced in the future under climate change. To identify the potential threat of climate change to the Ethiopian economy, this study analyzes three major factors that are changing under global warming: water availability under higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, the impact of changing precipitation patterns on flooding, and the potential impact on crop production of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. These issues are analyzed based on an existing multi-market-sector model for the Ethiopian economy, with a focus on agriculture. Our analysis finds that the major impact of climate change on Ethiopia’s economy will result from more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrologic events, which cause losses in both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. To adapt to these long-term changes, Ethiopia should invest in enhanced water control to expand irrigation and improve flood protection.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Gene Jiing-Yun & Ringler, Claudia, 2010. "Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 960, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/868/filename/869.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin, 2007. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia - An economy-wide model analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 205-228, April.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin & Ghautam, Madhur & Keough, James & Chamberlin, Jordan & You, Liangszi & Puetz, Detlev & Resnick, Danielle & Yu, Bingxin, 2005. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: a spatial, economy-wide model analysis for 2004-2015," DSGD discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    4. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 8030, The World Bank Group.
    5. Nikos Alexandratos, 2005. "Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food, Agriculture, and Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(2), pages 237-258, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.
    3. Demissie, Ashenafi A. & Solomon, A.A., 2016. "Power system sensitivity to extreme hydrological conditions as studied using an integrated reservoir and power system dispatch model, the case of Ethiopia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 442-463.
    4. Ragasa, Catherine & Sun, Yan & Bryan, Elizabeth & Abate, Caroline & Atlaw, Alumu & Keita, Mahamadou Namori, 2013. "Organizational and institutional issues in climate change adaptation and risk management: Insights from practitioners’ survey in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mali," IFPRI discussion papers 1279, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Benjamin F. Zaitchik & Belay Simane & Shahid Habib & Martha C. Anderson & Mutlu Ozdogan & Jeremy D. Foltz, 2012. "Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Role for Earth System Sciences," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Rampa, Alexis & Lovo, Stefania, 2023. "Revisiting the effects of the Ethiopian land tenure reform using satellite data. A focus on agricultural productivity, climate change mitigation and adaptation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    7. Foltz, Jeremy D. & Gars, Jared & Özdoğan, Mutlu & Simane, Belay & Zaitchik, Ben, 2013. "Weather and Welfare in Ethiopia," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150298, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Borgomeo, Edoardo & Vadheim, Bryan & Woldeyes, Firew B. & Alamirew, Tena & Tamru, Seneshaw & Charles, Katrina J. & Kebede, Seifu & Walker, Oliver, 2018. "The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 621-632.
    9. dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini, Angel & Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Horridge, Mark, 2016. "Water Demand Prospects in Brazil: A Sectoral Evaluation Using an Inter-Regional CGE Model," Conference papers 332699, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 8030, The World Bank Group.
    2. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    3. Ying Zhang & Liangzhi You & Donghoon Lee & Paul Block, 2020. "Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 435-451, February.
    4. Ambaye, Guesh Gebremeske, 2012. "Perception of Poverty by Ethiopian Rural Households: Using a Self Reported approach," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(4), pages 1-7, December.
    5. Diao, Xinshen & Fekadu, Belay & Haggblade, Steven & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu & Wamisho, Kassu & Yu, Bingxin, 2007. "Agricultural growth linkages in Ethiopia: Estimates using fixed and flexible price models," IFPRI discussion papers 695, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Headey, Derek & Johnson, Michael & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2008. "Accelerating Africa's food production in response to rising food prices: Impacts and requisite actions," IFPRI discussion papers 825, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Thurlow, James, 2010. "The Role of Agriculture in African Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1375-1383, October.
    8. Byerlee, Derek & Spielman, David J. & Alemu, Dawit & Gautam, Madhur, 2007. "Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: A review of evidence and experience," IFPRI discussion papers 707, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Yu, Bingxin & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Funes, José & Gemessa, Sinafikeh Asrat, 2011. "Cereal production and technology adoption in Ethiopia:," ESSP working papers 31, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Muuz Hadush, 2021. "Does it pay to switch from free grazing to stall feeding? Impact of stall feeding practice on household welfare in Tigrai Ethiopia," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    11. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    12. Block, Paul J., 2007. "Integrated management of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia: Hydropower and irrigation modeling," IFPRI discussion papers 700, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Berger, Thomas, 2015. "Adaptation of farm-households to increasing climate variability in Ethiopia: Bioeconomic modeling of innovation diffusion and policy interventions," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229062, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-09-efd, Resources for the Future.
    15. Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, August.
    16. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2009. "Tax policy to reduce carbon emissions in south Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4933, The World Bank.
    17. Saari, M. Yusof & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart, 2014. "Production interdependencies and poverty reduction across ethnic groups in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 146-158.
    18. Karen Fisher-Vanden & Ian Sue Wing & Elisa Lanzi & David Popp, 2013. "Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 481-495, April.
    19. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Fofana, Ismaël & Omolo, Miriam W. O. & Goundan, Anatole & Magne Domgho, Léa Vicky & Collins, Julia & Marti, Estefania, 2019. "NAIP toolkit for Malabo domestication: Economic modeling of agricultural growth and investment strategy, case study of Kenya," IFPRI discussion papers 1813, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect; Climate change; Droughts; floods; Global warming; hydro-economic modeling; hydrologic events;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.