IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v277y2023ics0378377422006758.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yitong
  • Hao, Zengchao
  • Zhang, Yu

Abstract

Compound dry and hot events or extremes (CDHEs) can cause reduced crop yield, posing threat to food security. Their impacts can be even higher than their univariate counterparts due to the compounding effects of the two extremes. As such, understanding the agricultural risk of CDHEs is critical for devising adaptation measures for the agricultural sector under global warming. However, previous studies mainly focus on changes in the hazard-related characteristics of CDHEs, while the risk assessment encompassing hazards, exposure, and vulnerability is still lacking. In this study, we assess changes in the risk of CDHEs to cropland in historical and future periods across the mainland of China, which incorporates cropland exposure and socio-economic vulnerability at regional scales. Along with increased hazards of CDHEs and heterogeneous changes of vulnerability, the risk of CDHEs was shown to increase across large regions of the country (e.g., Northeast China, North China, and East China) for the historical period from 1967 to 2014. Based on CMIP6 simulations, the agricultural risk of CDHEs is projected to increase in the future period 2053–2100 (by a factor of 1.3) compared with that in the historical period. This study provides a useful basis for agricultural risk assessments of CDHEs and developing adaptation measures in China under global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:277:y:2023:i:c:s0378377422006758
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422006758
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108128?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saowanit Prabnakorn & Shreedhar Maskey & F. X. Suryadi & Charlotte Fraiture, 2019. "Assessment of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk for rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin in Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 891-911, June.
    2. Ji Eun Kim & Jisoo Yu & Jae-Hee Ryu & Joo-Heon Lee & Tae-Woong Kim, 2021. "Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 707-724, October.
    3. Blankenau, Philip A. & Kilic, Ayse & Allen, Richard, 2020. "An evaluation of gridded weather data sets for the purpose of estimating reference evapotranspiration in the United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Bryan Jones & Brian C. O’Neill & Larry McDaniel & Seth McGinnis & Linda O. Mearns & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Future population exposure to US heat extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 652-655, July.
    5. Bin He & Jianjun Wu & Aifeng Lü & Xuefeng Cui & Lei Zhou & Ming Liu & Lin Zhao, 2013. "Quantitative assessment and spatial characteristic analysis of agricultural drought risk in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 155-166, March.
    6. Monteleone, Beatrice & Borzí, Iolanda & Bonaccorso, Brunella & Martina, Mario, 2022. "Developing stage-specific drought vulnerability curves for maize: The case study of the Po River basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    7. Jakob Zscheischler & Seth Westra & Bart J. J. M. Hurk & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Philip J. Ward & Andy Pitman & Amir AghaKouchak & David N. Bresch & Michael Leonard & Thomas Wahl & Xuebin Zhang, 2018. "Future climate risk from compound events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 469-477, June.
    8. Villani, Lorenzo & Castelli, Giulio & Piemontese, Luigi & Penna, Daniele & Bresci, Elena, 2022. "Drought risk assessment in Mediterranean agricultural watersheds: A case study in Central Italy," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    9. Jakob Zscheischler & Seth Westra & Bart J. J. M. Hurk & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Philip J. Ward & Andy Pitman & Amir AghaKouchak & David N. Bresch & Michael Leonard & Thomas Wahl & Xuebin Zhang, 2018. "Author Correction: Future climate risk from compound events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 750-750, August.
    10. Han, Zhiming & Huang, Qiang & Huang, Shengzhi & Leng, Guoyong & Bai, Qingjun & Liang, Hao & Wang, Lu & Zhao, Jing & Fang, Wei, 2021. "Spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in the Loess Plateau under a changing environment: Characteristics and potential influencing factors," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    11. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    12. Ribeiro, Andreia F.S. & Russo, Ana & Gouveia, Célia M. & Páscoa, Patrícia, 2019. "Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    14. Ruixue Wang & Roderick M Rejesus & Serkan Aglasan, 2021. "Warming Temperatures, Yield Risk and Crop Insurance Participation [Federal crop insurance and the disincentive to adapt to extreme heat]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(5), pages 1109-1131.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Mengyu & Zhou, Xiong & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping, 2024. "The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    2. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Xu, Yang & Hao, Fanghua, 2021. "Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Lena I. Fuldauer & Scott Thacker & Robyn A. Haggis & Francesco Fuso-Nerini & Robert J. Nicholls & Jim W. Hall, 2022. "Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. J. J. Wijetunge & N. G. P. B. Neluwala, 2023. "Compound flood hazard assessment and analysis due to tropical cyclone-induced storm surges, waves and precipitation: a case study for coastal lowlands of Kelani river basin in Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3979-4007, April.
    6. Kuik, Onno & Zhou, Fujin & Ciullo, Alessio & Brusselaers, Jan, 2022. "How vulnerable is Europe to severe climate-related natural disasters abroad? A dynamic CGE analysis of the international financial and economic impacts of a large hurricane in the southern USA," Conference papers 333438, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Isabel Dorado-Liñán & Blanca Ayarzagüena & Flurin Babst & Guobao Xu & Luis Gil & Giovanna Battipaglia & Allan Buras & Vojtěch Čada & J. Julio Camarero & Liam Cavin & Hugues Claessens & Igor Drobyshev , 2022. "Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Tao He & Wenya Zhang & Hanwen Zhang & Jinliang Sheng, 2023. "Estimation of Manure Emissions Issued from Different Chinese Livestock Species: Potential of Future Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Veruska Muccione & Thomas Lontzek & Christian Huggel & Philipp Ott & Nadine Salzmann, 2023. "An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 523-544, October.
    11. Samantaray, Alok Kumar & Ramadas, Meenu & Panda, Rabindra Kumar, 2022. "Changes in drought characteristics based on rainfall pattern drought index and the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    12. Thomas, J. & Brunette, M. & Leblois, A., 2022. "The determinants of adapting forest management practices to climate change: Lessons from a survey of French private forest owners," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    14. Arthur Moses & Jean E. T. McLain & Aminata Kilungo & Robert A. Root & Leif Abrell & Sanlyn Buxner & Flor Sandoval & Theresa Foley & Miriam Jones & Mónica D. Ramírez-Andreotta, 2022. "Minding the gap: socio-demographic factors linked to the perception of environmental pollution, water harvesting infrastructure, and gardening characteristics," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 12(3), pages 594-610, September.
    15. Sitong Yang & Shouwei Li & Xue Rui & Tianxiang Zhao, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on the asset side and liability side of the insurance industry: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-51, June.
    16. Mahshid Ghanbari & Mazdak Arabi & Matei Georgescu & Ashley M. Broadbent, 2023. "The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Luke J. Harrington & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2021. "Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Lusheng Li & Lili Zhao & Yanbin Li, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts in China: Change Patterns and Causes," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    19. Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Qinhan Zhu & Karina Reiter & Alessio Ciullo, 2023. "Challenges of instruments that should tackle multi-hazard and multi-risk situations: an assessment of the recent reforms of the European Solidarity Fund and the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(8), pages 1-16, December.
    20. Fekete, Alexander & Fuchs, Sven & Garschagen, Matthias & Hutter, Gérard & Klepp, Silja & Lüder, Catharina & Neise, Thomas & Sett, Dominic & von Elverfeldt, Kirsten & Wannewitz, Mia, 2022. "Adjustment or transformation? Disaster risk intervention examples from Austria, Indonesia, Kiribati and South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extremes; Hazards; Compound events; CMIP6; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:277:y:2023:i:c:s0378377422006758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.