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Future Scenarios and Trends of Energy Demand in Colombia using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Andres F. Paez

    (Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia,)

  • Yecid Mu oz Maldonado

    (Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia)

  • Adalberto Ospino Castro

    (Department of Energy, Universidad de la Costa, Colombia)

Abstract

The prospective of Colombia's energy demand will be defined by economic, social, cultural and political phenomena. Modeling the factors that determine demand can be broadly divided into quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative phenomena, demography, energy efficiency and the direct consumption of fuels; qualitative effects are specific conditions, which are defined within each scenario as variables that will have effects on quantitative phenomena. In the baseline scenario, the transportation sector is expected to remain as the largest representative of Colombia's energy demand, although its participation in the year 2050 will be reduced by approximately 7%. The residential sector will have a reduced growth supported by the law 1715 that will increase distributed generation and implement more efficient lighting systems. A scenario focused on energy diversification shows a reduction in demand since the short term. Transport sector is maintained with similar behaviors in all scenarios as the goods transport networks keep the same.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres F. Paez & Yecid Mu oz Maldonado & Adalberto Ospino Castro, 2017. "Future Scenarios and Trends of Energy Demand in Colombia using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 178-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2017-05-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Logan, Kathryn G. & Nelson, John D. & Brand, Christian & Hastings, Astley, 2021. "Phasing in electric vehicles: Does policy focusing on operating emission achieve net zero emissions reduction objectives?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-114.
    2. Rafael Peña Gallardo & Adalberto Ospino Castro & Aurelio Medina Ríos, 2020. "An Image Processing-Based Method to Assess the Monthly Energetic Complementarity of Solar and Wind Energy in Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Adalberto Ospino-Castro & Carlos Robles-Algar n & Juan Tob n-Perez & Rafael Pe a-Gallardo & Melisa Acosta-coll, 2020. "Financing of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic Projects Under a Net Metering Policy Framework: The Case of the Colombian Caribbean Region," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 337-346.
    4. Yecid Mu oz & Luz Helena Carvajal & Juan Pablo M ndez & Javier Camilo Ni o & Miguel Angel De la Rosa & Adalberto Ospino, 2021. "Technical and Financial Assessment of Photovoltaic Solar Systems for Residential Complexes Considering Three Different Commercial Technologies and Colombia s Energy Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 272-280.
    5. Adalberto Ospino Castro & Carlos Robles-Algar n & Rafael Pe a Gallardo, 2019. "Analysis of Energy Management and Financial Planning in the Implementation of PV Systems," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 1-11.
    6. Nelson Javier Hern ndez Bueno & Mar a de los ngeles Pinto Calder n & Yecid Alfonso Mu oz Maldonado & Adalberto Ospino Castro, 2018. "Determination of Models of Simple Regression and Multivariate Analysis for the Forecast of the Electricity Price in Colombia at 2030," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 202-211.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Prospective; Energy Demand; Economic and Energy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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