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Determination of Models of Simple Regression and Multivariate Analysis for the Forecast of the Electricity Price in Colombia at 2030

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Listed:
  • Nelson Javier Hern ndez Bueno

    (Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia)

  • Mar a de los ngeles Pinto Calder n

    (Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia)

  • Yecid Alfonso Mu oz Maldonado

    (Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia,)

  • Adalberto Ospino Castro

    (Department of Energy, Universidad de la Costa, Colombia)

Abstract

The electricity price in Colombia responds to demographic, economic, climatic changes, among others, that generate uncertainty and therefore risks in the electric production. Considering that the decision-making process has a great importance in the electricity market and that the participation of generators in energy auctions is usually based on intuition and previous experience, the need to study the possible alternatives and methods that minimize the risks before deciding some important matter can be appreciate. In this article, the estimation of the behavior of electrical energy prices in Colombia at the year 2030 for different scenarios and there are propose the following scientific models: (i) Simple regression; (ii) Econometric model. As result are obtained forecasts for each model, identifying that the econometric model has the lowest margin of error compared to the historical data that considers the behavior of different variables for the forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson Javier Hern ndez Bueno & Mar a de los ngeles Pinto Calder n & Yecid Alfonso Mu oz Maldonado & Adalberto Ospino Castro, 2018. "Determination of Models of Simple Regression and Multivariate Analysis for the Forecast of the Electricity Price in Colombia at 2030," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 202-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-05-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andres F. Paez & Yecid Mu oz Maldonado & Adalberto Ospino Castro, 2017. "Future Scenarios and Trends of Energy Demand in Colombia using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 178-190.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric Modeling; methods of statistical simulation; forecasting; electricity price.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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