Hazard analysis for interval-censored duration of non-employment: school-to-work transition of vocational training graduates in Morocco

This paper analyses the determinants of the probability of being employed under the framework of a reduced form survival model. We estimated a Cox's proportional hazard model accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and duration dependence using data from the 2009 Follow-up of Moroccan Vocational Training Graduates – Class of 2006 –. Our estimations reveal the presence of spurious negative duration dependence, that becomes positive after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Concerning vocational training characteristics we find that individuals in the lowest training level (specialization training) are 50% more likely to be employed than individuals in other training levels (qualification, technician and specialized technician). It seems that vocational training in Morocco is more responsive to the needs of sectors requiring low-skilled individuals. Finally, our results suggest that policy makers should focus in screening the needs required in middle- and high-skilled sectors of the labour market in order to align labour supply and employment offers in these sectors. That could contribute to reduce the long-term period of non-employment to which these categories of workers seem to be confronted.