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Is The Uk Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?

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  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Mills, Terence C.

Abstract

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the past 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2020. "Is The Uk Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 251, pages 47-53, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:251:y:2020:i::p:r47-r53_9
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "What can we learn from the United Kingdom’s post‐1945 economic reforms?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 354-376, October.
    3. Edward L. Knudsen, 2023. "Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(S4), pages 90-103, October.
    4. Victor Ajai & Karim Anaya & Geoffroy Dolphin & Michael Pollitt, 2022. "Do climate policies explain the productivity puzzle? Evidence from the Energy Sector," Working Papers 016, The Productivity Institute.
    5. Ajayi, V. & Pollitt, M .G., 2022. "Green growth and net zero policy in the UK: some conceptual and measurement issues," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2255, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. David Jordan & Sweta Pramanick & John D. Turner, "undated". "Do Managers Matter? Management Practices in post-COVID Northern Ireland," Working Papers 042, The Productivity Institute.
    7. Diane Coyle & John McHale & Ioannis Bournakis & Jen-Chung Mei, 2023. "Recent Trends in Firm-Level Total Factor Productivity in the United Kingdom: New Measures, New Puzzles," Working Papers 036, The Productivity Institute.
    8. Stephen Broadberry, 2024. "British Economic Growth and Development," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 951-986, Springer.
    9. Adwan, Sami, 2024. "Does employee ownership improve labour investment efficiency? Evidence from European firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    10. Diane Coyle & Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Diagnosing the UK productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 813-850, July.
    11. Parteka, Aleksandra & Kordalska, Aleksandra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Ian R Gordon & Ioannis Laliotis, 2021. "Uneven geographies of economic recovery and the stickiness of individual displacement," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(1), pages 157-178.
    13. Halmai, Péter, 2024. "Mélyintegráció-paradigma [Deep-integration Paradigm]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 514-558.
    14. Daping Zhao & Sajid Anwar & W. Robert J. Alexander, 2022. "Sources of economic slowdown: A simultaneous equations approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2549-2565, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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