IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20836.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Secular Stagnation: The Long View

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, averse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," NBER Working Papers 20836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20836
    Note: DAE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20836.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    3. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
    4. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index, "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2006. "Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Winter), pages 3-17.
    6. Stanley L. Engerman & Robert E. Gallman, 1986. "Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number enge86-1.
    7. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Introduction to "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 3-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2014. "World Saving," IMF Working Papers 2014/204, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, "undated". "Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," Working Papers 18, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
    10. Lewis, Frank D, 1983. "Fertility and Savings in the United States: 1830-1900," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 825-840, October.
    11. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-361, May.
    14. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1.
    15. Dorothy S. Brady, 1966. "Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad66-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2000. "Vintage organization capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    2. Turner, Chad & Tamura, Robert & Schoellman, Todd & Mulholland, Sean, 2011. "Estimating Physical Capital and Land for States and Sectors of the United States, 1850-2000," MPRA Paper 32847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreas Hornstein, 2004. "(Un)balanced growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Fall), pages 25-45.
    4. Hofman, André A., 2000. "The economic development of Latin America in the twentieth century," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1650 edited by Eclac, November.
    5. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rousseau, Peter L., 2005. "General Purpose Technologies," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1181-1224, Elsevier.
    6. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    7. Alban Moura, 2020. "Total factor productivity and the measurement of neutral technology," BCL working papers 143, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2013. "Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-06, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    9. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
    10. Patrizio Pagano & Massimo Sbracia, 2014. "The secular stagnation hypothesis: a review of the debate and some insights," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 231, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. L. Ngai & Roberto Samaniego, 2009. "Mapping prices into productivity in multisector growth models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 183-204, September.
    12. Chad Turner & Robert Tamura & Sean Mulholland, 2013. "How important are human capital, physical capital and total factor productivity for determining state economic growth in the United States, 1840–2000?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 319-371, December.
    13. Daniele Girardi & Antonio Mura, 2014. "The Construction-Development Curve: Evidence from a New International Dataset," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-26, July.
    14. Moura, Alban, 2021. "Are neutral and investment-specific technology shocks correlated?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Gerben Bakker & Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2019. "The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy: The United States, 1899–1941," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2267-2294.
    16. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    17. Steven Gjerstad & Vernon L. Smith, 2014. "Consumption and Investment Booms in the 1920s and Their Collapse in 1930," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 81-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L., 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1275-1370, Elsevier.
    19. Xavier Tafunell & Cristián Ducoing, 2015. "Non-residential capital stock in Latin America. 1875-2008," Economics Working Papers 1472, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2024. "The Incubator of Human Capital: The NBER and the Rise of the Human Capital Paradigm," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic History of American Inequality: New Evidence and Perspectives, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.