IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/exehis/v57y2015icp38-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Output growth in German manufacturing, 1907–1936. A reinterpretation of time-series evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Veenstra, Joost

Abstract

This study uses state space time series analysis to estimate output growth in German manufacturing between 1907 and 1936. In the absence of net-output data, previous research has estimated output change using proxy variables. Various proxy-based output series are available that imply either a 25% German labor-productivity lead over Britain or a parity of performance in 1907. The conventional strategy to deal with this conundrum involves a choice between the series. With the correlation between the different proxies and output unknown, such a choice is inappropriate because it results in the loss of information provided by the rejected proxies. Instead, this study makes full and efficient use of all information by estimating a common component in the various output series. The new estimate of output change implies a German lead over Britain in manufacturing labor productivity of 4.4% in 1907.

Suggested Citation

  • Veenstra, Joost, 2015. "Output growth in German manufacturing, 1907–1936. A reinterpretation of time-series evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 38-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:38-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2015.03.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014498315000157
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eeh.2015.03.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weale, Martin, 1985. "Testing Linear Hypotheses on National Account Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 685-689, November.
    2. Broadberry, Stephen & Burhop, Carsten, 2007. "Comparative Productivity in British and German Manufacturing Before World War II: Reconciling Direct Benchmark Estimates and Time Series Projections," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 315-349, June.
    3. Ritschl, Albrecht, 2004. "Spurious growth in German output data, 1913—1938," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 201-223, August.
    4. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    5. Jorg Baten & Dorothee Crayen & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2014. "Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780–1850," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 418-430, July.
    6. Uebele, Martin, 2011. "National and international market integration in the 19th century: Evidence from comovement," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 226-242, April.
    7. Broadberry, Stephen N., 1993. "Manufacturing and the Convergence Hypothesis: What the Long-Run Data Show," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 772-795, December.
    8. Uebele, Martin & Pfister, Ulrich & Riedel, Jana, 2012. "Real wages and the origins of modern economic growth in Germany, 16th to 19th centuries," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62076, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Broadberry, Stephen & Burhop, Carsten, 2008. "Resolving the Anglo-German Industrial Productivity Puzzle, 1895–1935: A Response to Professor Ritschl," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 930-934, September.
    10. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
    11. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    12. Broadberry,Stephen & Harrison,Mark (ed.), 2005. "The Economics of World War I," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852128, January.
    13. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    15. Joerg Baten & Jan Zanden, 2008. "Book production and the onset of modern economic growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 217-235, September.
    16. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    17. Andrew Harvey & Chia‐Hui Chung, 2000. "Estimating the underlying change in unemployment in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(3), pages 303-309.
    18. Michael Anderson & Ronald Lee, 2002. "Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 195-220.
    19. Van den Bossche, Filip A. M., 2011. "Fitting State Space Models with EViews," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 41(i08).
    20. Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 1991. "Balanced estimates of UK GDP 1870-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 54-63, January.
    21. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "From Malthus to Solow: How did the Malthusian economy really evolve?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 68-93, March.
    22. Angus Deaton & Bettina Aten, 2017. "Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP 2011: Why Are the Results So Different?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 243-264, January.
    23. Ward, Marianne & Devereux, John, 2003. "Measuring British Decline: Direct Versus Long-Span Income Measures," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 826-851, September.
    24. Burhop, Carsten & Wolff, Guntram B., 2005. "A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851–1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 613-657, September.
    25. Broadberry,Steve N., 2005. "The Productivity Race," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023580, January.
    26. Fremdling Rainer, 2007. "German Industrial Employment 1925,1933,1936 and 1939. A New Benchmark for 1936 and a Note on Hoffmann's Tales," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 48(2), pages 171-196, December.
    27. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-35, October.
    28. Jong, H. de & Woltjer, P., 2009. "A Comparison of Real Output and Productivity for British and American Manufacturing in 1935," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-108, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    29. Huberman, Michael & Minns, Chris, 2007. "The times they are not changin': Days and hours of work in Old and New Worlds, 1870-2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 538-567, October.
    30. Broadberry, Stephen N. & Irwin, Douglas A., 2006. "Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 257-279, April.
    31. Ritschl, Albrecht, 2008. "The Anglo-German Industrial Productivity Puzzle, 1895–1935: A Restatement and a Possible Resolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 535-565, June.
    32. Goldin, Claudia, 2001. "The Human-Capital Century And American Leadership: Virtues Of The Past," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 263-292, June.
    33. Broadberry S. N. & Ritschl A., 1995. "Real Wages, Productivity, and Unemployment in Britain and Germany during the 1920's," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 327-349, July.
    34. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    35. Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2009. "Tracking down the business cycle: A dynamic factor model for Germany 1820-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 368-387, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Ronsse & Samuel Standaert, 2017. "Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 218-226, October.
    2. Stijn Ronsse & Samuel Standaert, 2017. "Combining growth and level data: an estimation of the population of Belgian cities between 1880 and 1970," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/927, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2022. "The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany, 1870-2020," IZA Discussion Papers 15607, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Joost Veenstra & Herman Jong, 2016. "A Tale of Two Tails: Establishment Size and Labour Productivity in United States and German Manufacturing at the Start of the Twentieth Century," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 198-220, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Burhop, Carsten, 2008. "Resolving the Anglo-German Industrial Productivity Puzzle, 1895–1935: A Response to Professor Ritschl," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 930-934, September.
    2. Rainer Fremdling & Reiner Staeglin, 2014. "Editor's choice Output, national income, and expenditure: an input–output table of Germany in 1936," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(4), pages 371-397.
    3. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Adam Tooze, 2013. "Machine tools and mass production in the armaments boom: Germany and the United States, 1929–44," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(4), pages 953-974, November.
    4. Ritschl, Albrecht, 2008. "The Anglo-German productivity puzzle, 1895-1935: a restatement and a possible resolution," Economic History Working Papers 22309, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    5. Ulrich Pfister & Jana Riedel & Martin Uebele, 2012. "Real Wages and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth in Germany, 16th to 19th Centuries," Working Papers 0017, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Allen, Robert C., 2014. "American Exceptionalism as a Problem in Global History," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 309-350, June.
    7. Joost Veenstra & Herman Jong, 2016. "A Tale of Two Tails: Establishment Size and Labour Productivity in United States and German Manufacturing at the Start of the Twentieth Century," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 198-220, July.
    8. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fremdling, Rainer & Jong, Herman de & Timmer, Marcel P., 2007. "Censuses compared. A New Benchmark for British and German Manufacturing 1935/1936," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-90, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    10. Fremdling, Rainer, 2018. "Statistik und Organisation der NS-Kriegswirtschaft und der DDR-Planwirtschaft 1933-1949/50 [Statistics and Organization of the NS-War Economy and the East-German Planned Economy 1933-1949/50]," MPRA Paper 87664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Robert Inklaar & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2017. "Cross-Country Income Levels over Time: Did the Developing World Suddenly Become Much Richer?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 265-290, January.
    12. Jong, H. de & Woltjer, P., 2009. "A Comparison of Real Output and Productivity for British and American Manufacturing in 1935," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-108, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    13. Peter H. Lindert, 2016. "Purchasing Power Disparity before 1914," NBER Working Papers 22896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Harald Edquist & Magnus Henrekson, 2006. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 1-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Nicholas Crafts, 2022. "Slow real wage growth during the Industrial Revolution: productivity paradox or pro-rich growth? [Engels’ pause: technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the British industrial rev," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-13.
    16. Stijn Ronsse & Samuel Standaert, 2017. "Combining growth and level data: an estimation of the population of Belgian cities between 1880 and 1970," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/927, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Marianne Ward & John Devereux, 2021. "New Income Comparisons for the late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 222-247, March.
    18. Crafts, Nicholas, 2020. "British Relative Economic Decline in the Aftermath of German Unification," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1295, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    19. Ward, Marianne & Devereux, John, 2012. "The Road Not Taken: Pre-Revolutionary Cuban Living Standards in Comparative Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 104-132, March.
    20. Hassan, Fadi, 2016. "The price of development: The Penn–Balassa–Samuelson effect revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 291-309.
    21. Stahler Kevin & Subramanian Arvind, 2014. "Versailles Redux? Eurozone Competitiveness in a Dynamic Balassa-Samuelson-Penn Framework," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 129-176, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time series; state space models; comparative economic history; production; manufacturing; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N64 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:38-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622830 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.