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A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change

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  • Coccia, Mario

Abstract

A debate exists in literature between the Goldstein's theory that Kondratieff-waves (K-waves) or Long Waves (LWs) are linked to hegemonic wars occurring in the final phase of ascending long cycles and studies that do not support this pattern. However, current theoretical frameworks have trouble explaining the sources of LWs with comprehensive and consistent arguments. This study proposes a theory that LWs are due to structural change of warfare that generates huge demand-side effects and powerful supply-side effects to support the evolution of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) and clusters of innovation. In particular, the analysis here seems to reveal a sequential historical process that runs from wars performed by great powers, occurring in phases of instability of LWs (peak and/or trough), to GPTs and clusters of innovation in the trough of K-waves, which trigger the upward phase of new K-waves. Overall, then, the theory here can be useful for bringing a new perspective to explain, whenever possible one of the general sources of the evolution of LWs, rooted-in-war, that generates technological and economic change in society.

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  • Coccia, Mario, 2018. "A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 287-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:128:y:2018:i:c:p:287-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.11.013
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    Cited by:

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    5. Mario COCCIA, 2018. "Violent crime driven by income Inequality between countries," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 33-55, March.
    6. Kaldor, Mary, 2021. "War and Transition," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(10).
    7. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2022. "Non-resonating cycles in a dynamic model for investment behavior," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
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    10. Lee, Jun Gon & Park, Min Jae, 2019. "Rethinking the national defense R&D innovation system for latecomer: Defense R&D governance matrix," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Johnstone, Phil & McLeish, Caitriona, 2022. "World wars and sociotechnical change in energy, food, and transport: A deep transitions perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. Coccia, Mario, 2020. "Deep learning technology for improving cancer care in society: New directions in cancer imaging driven by artificial intelligence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Liu, Yong & Du, Jun-liang & Yang, Jin-bi & Qian, Wu-yong & Forrest, Jeffrey Yi-Lin, 2019. "An incentive mechanism for general purpose technologies R&D based on the concept of super-conflict equilibrium: Empirical evidence from nano industrial technology in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 185-197.
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    15. Kott, Alexander & Perconti, Philip, 2018. "Long-term forecasts of military technologies for a 20–30 year horizon: An empirical assessment of accuracy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 272-279.
    16. Wang, Cong & Lu, Yifan, 2020. "Can economic structural change and transition explain cross-country differences in innovative activity?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Mario COCCIA, 2018. "Types of government and innovative performance of countries," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 15-33, March.
    18. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2021. "Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    19. Mario COCCIA, 2018. "Evolution of the economics of science in the Twenty Century," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 65-84, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long wave; Kondratieff waves; General purpose technologies; Wars; Goldstein's theory; Economic change; Technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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