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The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mills, Terence C.

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper re-examines UK productivity growth in the decades before World War I using a new dataset compiled by Thomas and Dimsdale (2017). We find that the productivity slowdown of the early 20th century was quite modest and does not deserve to be called a climacteric. A more serious slowdown in labour productivity growth occurred in the 1870s. Neither of these episodes should be regarded as a precedent for the current severe deterioration in UK productivity performance. Nor should a late-Victorian productivity slowdown be attributed to the end of the steam age despite the popularity of this belief.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2019. "The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 437, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:437
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2004. "Was 19th century British growth steam-powered?: the climacteric revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 156-171, April.
    2. Mills, Terence C. & Crafts, N. F. R., 1996. "Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700-1913: A Reappraisal," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 277-295, July.
    3. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    4. Flaig Gebhard, 2015. "Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 518-538, December.
    5. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    6. Crafts,Nicholas, 2018. "Forging Ahead, Falling Behind and Fighting Back," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108424400, October.
    7. E. H. Phelps Brown & S. J. Handfield-Jones, 1952. "THE CLIMACTERIC OF THE 1890's: A STUDY IN THE EXPANDING ECONOMY," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 266-307.
    8. Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 221-244, October.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2018. "Cliometrics," Working Papers of BETA 2018-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Crafts, N F R & Leybourne, S J & Mills, Terence C, 1989. "The Climacteric in Late Victorian Britain and France: A Reappraisal of the Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 103-117, April-Jun.
    11. Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 1991. "Balanced estimates of UK GDP 1870-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 54-63, January.
    12. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Cliometrics," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-642-40406-1, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climacteric; growth accounting; Hodrick-Prescott filter; productivity slowdown JEL Classification: N13; O47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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