IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/437.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mills, Terence C.

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper re-examines UK productivity growth in the decades before World War I using a new dataset compiled by Thomas and Dimsdale (2017). We find that the productivity slowdown of the early 20th century was quite modest and does not deserve to be called a climacteric. A more serious slowdown in labour productivity growth occurred in the 1870s. Neither of these episodes should be regarded as a precedent for the current severe deterioration in UK productivity performance. Nor should a late-Victorian productivity slowdown be attributed to the end of the steam age despite the popularity of this belief.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2019. "The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 437, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/437-2019_crafts.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mills, Terence C. & Crafts, N. F. R., 1996. "Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700-1913: A Reappraisal," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 277-295, July.
    2. E. H. Phelps Brown & S. J. Handfield-Jones, 1952. "THE CLIMACTERIC OF THE 1890's: A STUDY IN THE EXPANDING ECONOMY," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 266-307.
    3. Crafts,Nicholas, 2018. "Forging Ahead, Falling Behind and Fighting Back," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108438162.
    4. Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 221-244, October.
    5. Claude Diebolt, 2018. "Cliometrics," Working Papers 01-18, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    6. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    7. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    8. Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 1991. "Balanced estimates of UK GDP 1870-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 54-63, January.
    9. Flaig Gebhard, 2015. "Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 518-538, December.
    10. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2004. "Was 19th century British growth steam-powered?: the climacteric revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 156-171, April.
    11. Crafts, N F R & Leybourne, S J & Mills, Terence C, 1989. "The Climacteric in Late Victorian Britain and France: A Reappraisal of the Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 103-117, April-Jun.
    12. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Cliometrics," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-642-40406-1, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Crafts & Terence C. Mills, 2017. "Six centuries of British economic growth: a time-series perspective," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 21(2), pages 141-158.
    2. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "The Sources Of British Economic Growth Since The Industrial Revolution: Not The Same Old Story," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 697-709, July.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2004. "Was 19th century British growth steam-powered?: the climacteric revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 156-171, April.
    4. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C. & Mulatu, Abay, 2007. "Total factor productivity growth on Britain's railways, 1852-1912: A reappraisal of the evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 608-634, October.
    5. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2020. "Is The Uk Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 251, pages 47-53, February.
    6. Harald Edquist & Magnus Henrekson, 2006. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 1-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Brian A'Hearn & Alexia Delfino & Alessandro Nuvolari, 2022. "Rethinking age heaping: a cautionary tale from nineteenth‐century Italy," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(1), pages 111-137, February.
    8. Tubaro, Paola & Coville, Marion & Le Ludec, Clément & Casilli, Antonio A., 2022. "Hidden inequalities: The gendered labour of women on micro-tasking platforms," Internet Policy Review: Journal on Internet Regulation, Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Berlin, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26.
    9. Jean-François Mignot, 2019. "Child Adoption in Western Europe, 1900–2015," Studies in Economic History, in: Claude Diebolt & Auke Rijpma & Sarah Carmichael & Selin Dilli & Charlotte Störmer (ed.), Cliometrics of the Family, chapter 0, pages 333-366, Springer.
    10. Kim, Sukkoo, 2005. "Industrialization and urbanization: Did the steam engine contribute to the growth of cities in the United States?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 586-598, October.
    11. Simon P. Lloyd & Solomos Solomou, 2020. "The impact of the 1932 General Tariff: a difference-in-difference approach," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 14(1), pages 41-60, January.
    12. Christopher P. P. Shafuda & Utpal Kumar De, 2020. "Government expenditure on human capital and growth in Namibia: a time series analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Martina Cioni & Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2020. "The long-term evolution of economic history: evidence from the top five field journals (1927–2017)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(1), pages 1-39, January.
    14. Leslie Hannah & Robert Bennett, 2022. "Large‐scale Victorian manufacturers: Reconstructing the lost 1881 UK employer census," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(3), pages 830-856, August.
    15. Lino Wehrheim, 2019. "Economic history goes digital: topic modeling the Journal of Economic History," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(1), pages 83-125, January.
    16. Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2021. "Growth Accounting In Economic History: Findings, Lessons And New Directions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 670-696, July.
    17. Emanuele Felice & Josep Pujol Andreu & Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2016. "GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(28), pages 813-866.
    18. Crafts, N. F. R. & Mills, Terence C., 1990. "British Economic Fluctuations, 1851-1913 A Perspective Based on Growth Theory," Economic Research Papers 268482, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    19. Javier Mejía, 2015. "The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics (La evolución de la historia económica desde 1950: de cliometría hasta cliodinámica)," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 2(2), pages 79, December.
    20. Sandro Mendonca, 2006. "The Revolution Within: Ict And The Shifting Knowledge Base Of The World'S Largest Companies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 777-799.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climacteric; growth accounting; Hodrick-Prescott filter; productivity slowdown JEL Classification: N13; O47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.