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The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Cyriac Guillaumin

Abstract

Dans cet article, nous examinons l’importance des chocs externes sur les fluctuations domestiques des pays d’Asie de l’Est et vérifions si ces chocs conduisent à des réactions symétriques ou asymétriques des pays étudiés. Pour cela, nous estimons, sur la période 1990T1-2012T2, un modèle VAR structurel avec contrainte d’exogénéité (modèle SVARX) intégrant plusieurs types de chocs externes. Nous montrons un impact croissant de ces chocs externes sur les variables domestiques depuis le milieu des années 1990. Nous montrons également que les chocs sur le prix réel du pétrole et sur le PIB américain ont un impact significatif sur l’activité domestique et conduisent à des réactions davantage symétriques, en comparaison au choc monétaire américain et aux chocs financiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2012-q4-132-2
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    4. Vu, Tuan Khai & Nakata, Hayato, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in ASEAN Countries: Analysis Using a VAR with Block Exogeneity," Discussion Paper Series 619, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    9. Jawadi, Fredj & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A panel VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 535-542.
    10. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
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    15. Marine Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3: Un Modele Var Structurel," Working Papers hal-00913175, HAL.
    16. Necibi, Thameur & Issaoui, Fakhri, 2013. "The impact of oil prices on economic activity in administrated price structure: the case of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 50420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jamshaid Ur Rehman & Sehrish Fareen & Shabbir Ahmad & Aftab Anwar, 2022. "Dynamic Impact Of External Shocks On Macroeconomic Fundamentals Of Selected South Asian Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 197-207.
    18. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.
    19. Ong, Sheue Li & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Regional or global shock? A global VAR analysis of Asian economic and financial integration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 232-248.
    20. Marine COUPAUD, 2014. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3 : Un Modèle Var Structurel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 113-138.
    21. Riadh Trabelsi, 2024. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Tunisia: a structural VAR approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(10), pages 1-28, October.
    22. Vu, Tuan Khai & Nakata, Hayato, 2018. "Oil price fluctuations and the small open economies of Southeast Asia: An analysis using vector autoregression with block exogeneity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Shocks; East Asia; SVARX Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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