IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/laf/wpaper/cr1306.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contagion des crises de 1997 et 2008 en ASEAN+3 : un modèle VAR structurel

Author

Listed:
  • Marien Coupaud

    (Larefi, Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

The crises of 1997 and 2008 provide a resourceful environment to study the impact of monetary and real shocks in ASEAN economies. The paper aims at analyzing the reaction of the Asean+3 member states facing international disturbances and at identifying the contagion mechanisms in action during the crisis periods. The main objective is to provide policy recommendations in order to increase these countries' economic stability to contemplate a monetary union in the medium term. In this paper, we use a Structural VAR to highlight phenomenon of pure contagion in the spread of the crises among the countries. We also witness a positive evolution in the shock responses of the Asean+3 member states, especially when they face international financial disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Marien Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion des crises de 1997 et 2008 en ASEAN+3 : un modèle VAR structurel," Larefi Working Papers 1306, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:laf:wpaper:cr1306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://laf.u-bordeaux4.fr/RePEc/CR_13EFI06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L’impact des chocs externes sur et à l’intérieur de la zone euro : les enseignements d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 15-33.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Ackermann, Josef, 2008. "The subprime crisis and its consequences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 329-337, December.
    6. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
    7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    8. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    9. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "The 1997-98 Liquidity Crisis: Asia versus Latin America," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 413-452, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Velasco, A. & Chang, R., 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," Working Papers 98-27, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    11. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    12. Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2006. "Regional and Global Financial Integration in East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 0602, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    13. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    14. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    15. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
    16. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    17. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    18. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    19. Cyriac Guillaumin, 2008. "(A)symetrie et convergence des chocs macroeconomiques en Asie de l'Est : une analyse dynamique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 114, pages 29-68.
    20. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
    21. Guonan Ma & Eli M Remolona, 2005. "Opening markets through a regional bond fund: lessons from ABF2," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    22. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    23. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    24. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    25. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
    26. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q4-132-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
    28. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    29. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    30. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
    31. Céline Gimet, 2009. "The spread of international financial shocks to Asean countries," Working Papers 0928, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    32. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    34. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    36. Kim, David, 2007. "An East Asian currency union?: The empirical nature of macroeconomic shocks in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 847-866, December.
    37. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marine Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3: Un Modele Var Structurel," Working Papers hal-00913175, HAL.
    2. Marine COUPAUD, 2014. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3 : Un Modèle Var Structurel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 113-138.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    4. Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2011. "Chocs externes et perspective d'union monétaire en Asie de l'Est : les enseignements d'un modèle VAR structurel," Post-Print halshs-00632373, HAL.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    7. Gus, Garita & Chen, Zhou, 2011. "Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness," MPRA Paper 30218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gus Garita & Chen Zhou, 2009. "Can Open Capital Markets Help Avoid Currency Crises?," DNB Working Papers 205, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2005. "High‐Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 357-381, December.
    10. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "High-Frequency Contagion Between the Exchange Rates and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    13. Lagunes, Mario & Watkins, Karen, 2009. "Efectos de las Crisis Anticipadas y No Anticipadas sobre El Contagio Financiero Internacional," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(08), pages 101-148, primer se.
    14. Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Currency Crisis Transmission Through Trade Channel: Asian and Mexican Crises Revisited," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 818-840.
    15. Gimet, Celine, 2007. "Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: The importance of banking and financial regional criteria," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 317-335, October.
    16. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    17. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    18. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    19. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    STRUCTURAL VAR; CONTAGION; LIQUIDITY CRISIS; ASEAN; MONETARY UNION;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:laf:wpaper:cr1306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cyril Mesmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labrdfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.