IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i11p3010-3018.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate volatility across financial crises

Author

Listed:
  • Coudert, Virginie
  • Couharde, Cécile
  • Mignon, Valérie

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of global financial turmoil on the exchange rate policies in emerging countries. Spillovers from advanced financial markets to currencies in emerging countries are likely to be exacerbated during crisis periods. To test this hypothesis, we assess the exchange rate policies by currencies' volatility and investigate their relationship to a global financial stress indicator, measured by the volatility on global markets. We introduce the possibility of nonlinearities by running smooth transition regressions over a sample of 21 emerging countries from January 1994 to September 2009. The results confirm that exchange rate volatility does increase more than proportionally with the global financial stress, for most countries in the sample. We also evidence regional contagion effects spreading from one emerging currency to other currencies in the neighboring area.

Suggested Citation

  • Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility across financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3010-3018, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:3010-3018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611001385
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    7. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    9. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    10. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    11. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    12. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-763, November.
    13. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    14. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    15. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & McClelland, Andrew, 2009. "The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1033-1038, June.
    16. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    17. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2000. "Looking for Contagion: Evidence from the ERM," NBER Working Papers 7797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises," Working Papers 2010-08, CEPII research center.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 10.
    20. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    21. Teräsvirta, Timo, 1996. "Smooth Transition Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 132, Stockholm School of Economics.
    22. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Does Euro or Dollar Pegging Impact the Real Exchange Rate? The Case of Oil and Commodity Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1557-1592, September.
    23. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    24. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
    25. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    28. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility across financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3010-3018, November.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises," Working Papers 2010-08, CEPII research center.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    3. V. Coudert & C. Couharde & V. Mignon, 2013. "Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5076-5085, December.
    4. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "L'impact des crises financières globales sur les marchés des changes des pays émergents," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(3), pages 451-460.
    5. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    6. Sewraj, Deeya & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2018. "Identifying contagion: A unifying approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-240.
    7. Metiu, N., 2011. "Financial contagion in developed sovereign bond markets," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    8. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    10. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-157.
    11. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Raymond, Hélène & Rharrabti, Houda, 2017. "The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks stocks. Some evidence of shift contagion in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-37.
    13. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Speculative Attacks: Is there a link?," MPRA Paper 72359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    15. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    16. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    17. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Politsidis, Panagiotis N., 2023. "Sovereign bond and CDS market contagion: A story from the Eurozone crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Emerson Fernandes Marcal & Pedro Valls Pereira & Diogenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2011. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2365-2379.
    19. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    20. Alexis CRUZ-RODRIGUEZ, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 377-392, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises Dollar pegs Contagion effects Nonlinearity;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:3010-3018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.