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Sektorale Prognosen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe

Author

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  • Anna Sophia Ciesielski
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Systematische Konjunkturprognosen auf sektoraler Ebene sind sowohl in der Praxis als auch in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur rar. Der vorliegende Beitrag prognostiziert die Wachstumsraten von 22 Wirtschaftszweigen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Darunter befinden sich zentrale Branchen wie der Maschinenbau, die chemische Industrie und die Nahrungsmittelbranche. Als Indikatoren werden alle regelmäßig verwendeten Fragen des ifo Konjunkturtests auf Branchenebene verwendet. Diese enthalten neben den bekanntesten Fragen nach Geschäftslage und -erwartungen auch Informationen über Preise, Produktion, Lagerhaltung und Exporte. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass mit Hilfe der ifo-Indikatoren die Prognose in allen Branchen gegenüber einem autoregressiven Benchmark verbessert werden kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Sophia Ciesielski & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Sektorale Prognosen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(22), pages 27-35, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:64:y:2011:i:22:p:27-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Branchenentwicklung; Prognose;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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