IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/repdal/redp_144_0489.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Caractérisation des crises financières à l'aide de modèles hybrides (HMC-MLP)

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Maillet
  • Madalina Olteanu
  • Joseph Rynkiewicz

Abstract

Characterization of financial crisis with hybridHMC-MLP models Violent turbulences are often striking the financial markets and an Index of Market Shocks (IMS) was recently introduced in the attempt of quantifying these turbulences. Regime switching linear models have already been used in modelling the conditional volatility of returns. In this paper, we propose a description of the IMS with hybrid models integrating multi-layer perceptrons and hidden Markov chains. After studying the prediction performance of the models, we focus on the series separation and the index behaviour subject to hidden states.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Maillet & Madalina Olteanu & Joseph Rynkiewicz, 2004. "Caractérisation des crises financières à l'aide de modèles hybrides (HMC-MLP)," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 489-506.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_144_0489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=REDP_144_0489
    Download Restriction: free
    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique-2004-4-page-489.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
    4. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    5. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2003. "An index of market shocks based on multiscale analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 88-97.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bertrand Maillet & Madalina Olteanu & Joseph Rynkiewicz, 2004. "Caractérisation de crises financières à l'aide de modèles hybrides (HMC-MLP)," Post-Print hal-00308473, HAL.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, November.
    3. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    4. PERRON, Benoît, 1999. "Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9912, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Rossi, Alessandro & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "Volatility estimation via hidden Markov models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 203-230, March.
    6. Ataurima Arellano, Miguel & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan, 2008. "Multivariate regimeswitching GARCH with an application to international stock markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Hyun Kook Shin & Byoung Hark Yoo, 2012. "The Volatility Of The Won-Dollar Exchange Rate During The 2008-9 Crisis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 61-77, December.
    9. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
    10. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 04 Mar 2005.
    11. Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1998. "Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?," Kiel Working Papers 899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Dinghai Xu & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 08008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
    13. Li, Ming-Yuan Leon, 2009. "Could the jump diffusion technique enhance the effectiveness of futures hedging models?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(10), pages 3076-3088.
    14. W. K. Li & Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "A Survey of Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0545, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Sang Hoon Kang & Seong-Min Yoon, 2010. "Sudden Changes and Persistence in Volatility of Korean Equity Sector Returns," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 431-451.
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0243 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    18. Alistair Mees & Berndt Pilgram, 2000. "Non-Linear Markov Modelling Using Canonical Variate Analysis: Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1162, Econometric Society.
    19. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    20. Eric Hillebrand, 2003. "Overlaying Time Scales and Persistence Estimation in GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrics 0301003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Walid Chkili, 2021. "Modeling Bitcoin price volatility: long memory vs Markov switching," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 433-448, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_144_0489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.