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Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH

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Abstract

DAMGARCH is a new model that extends the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) by introducing multiple thresholds and time-dependent structure in the asymmetry of the conditional variances. Analytical expressions for the news impact surface implied by the new model are also presented. DAMGARCH models the shocks affecting the conditional variances on the basis of an underlying multivariate distribution. It is possible to model explicitly asset-specific shocks and common innovations by partitioning the multivariate density support. This paper presents the model structure, describes the implementation issues, and provides the conditions for the existence of a unique stationary solution, and for consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators. The paper also presents an empirical example to highlight the usefulness of the new model.

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  • Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," Working Papers in Economics 10/73, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/73
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    29. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Forecasting co-volatilities via factor models with asymmetry and long memory in realized covariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 251-262.
    2. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.
    3. Rombouts, Jeroen & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Franceso, 2014. "The value of multivariate model sophistication: An application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 78-98.
    4. repec:cte:wsrepe:ws131110 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Oscar Espinosa & Fabio Nieto, 2020. "A study on the leverage effect on financial series using a TAR model: a Bayesian approach," Papers 2002.05319, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    6. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.
    7. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "A Portfolio Index GARCH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 449-461.
    8. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "General correcting formulae for forecasts," MPRA Paper 55283, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate asymmetry; conditional variance; stationarity conditions; asymptotic theory; multivariate news impact curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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