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Regime Switching: Italian Financial Markets over a Century

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Abstract

The frequency of crashes and the magnitude of crises in international financial markets are growing more severe over time. Recent financial crises are not singular events portrayed in recent accounts, rather, they erupt in circumstances that are very similar to the economic and financial environments of the earlier eras. This paper analyzes the Italian stock market in two very peculiar periods (1901-1911 and 1993-2004): the “Second” and the “Third Industrial Revolution”. We use Markov Switching Models to test whether the Italian stock market volatility has increased in the long run and if it can be represented by different volatility regimes. We find that volatility regimes exist; that Banking sector has a central role and “New Economy” sectors perform quite well while traditional sectors do not, in both periods.

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  • Margherita Velucchi, 2007. "Regime Switching: Italian Financial Markets over a Century," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    • Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2007_03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov Switching Models; Volatility Regimes; Second and Third Industrial Revolutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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