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Inference in non stationary asymmetric garch models

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  • Francq, Christian
  • Zakoian, Jean-Michel

Abstract

This paper considers the statistical inference of the class of asymmetric power-transformed GARCH(1,1) models in presence of possible explosiveness. We study the explosive behavior of volatility when the strict stationarity condition is not met. This allows us to establish the asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the parameter, including the power but without the intercept, when strict stationarity does not hold. Two important issues can be tested in this framework: asymmetry and stationarity. The tests exploit the existence of a universal estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the QMLE. By establishing the local asymptotic normality (LAN) property in this nonstationary framework, we can also study optimality issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Francq, Christian & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2013. "Inference in non stationary asymmetric garch models," MPRA Paper 44901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44901
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guo, Shaojun & Li, Dong & Li, Muyi, 2019. "Strict stationarity testing and GLAD estimation of double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 319-337.
    3. Min Chen & Dong Li & Shiqing Ling, 2014. "Non-Stationarity And Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation On A Double Autoregressive Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 189-202, May.
    4. Wang, Hui & Pan, Jiazhu, 2014. "Normal mixture quasi maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary TGARCH(1,1) models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 117-123.
    5. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Testing the existence of moments for GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 47-64.
    6. Massacci, Daniele, 2014. "A two-regime threshold model with conditional skewed Student t distributions for stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 9-20.
    7. Guochang Wang & Ke Zhu & Guodong Li & Wai Keung Li, 2019. "Hybrid quantile estimation for asymmetric power GARCH models," Papers 1911.09343, arXiv.org.
    8. Songhua Tan & Qianqian Zhu, 2022. "Asymmetric linear double autoregression," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 371-388, May.
    9. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Touche, Nassim, 2015. "Weighted least squares-based inference for stable and unstable threshold power ARCH processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 108-115.
    10. Tao, Yubo, 2019. "Limit theory for moderate deviation from Integrated GARCH processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 126-136.
    11. Li, Dong & Ling, Shiqing & Zhu, Ke, 2016. "ZD-GARCH model: a new way to study heteroscedasticity," MPRA Paper 68621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arvanitis, Stelios, 2019. "Stable limit theory for the Gaussian QMLE in a non-stationary asymmetric GARCH model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 166-172.
    13. Li, Dong & Tao, Yuxin & Yang, Yaxing & Zhang, Rongmao, 2023. "Maximum likelihood estimation for α-stable double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    14. Davy Paindaveine & Joséa Rasoafaraniaina & Thomas Verdebout, 2021. "Preliminary test estimation in uniformly locally asymptotically normal models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(2), pages 689-707, June.
    15. Ta-Hsin Li, 2019. "Quantile-Frequency Analysis and Spectral Divergence Metrics for Diagnostic Checks of Time Series With Nonlinear Dynamics," Papers 1908.02545, arXiv.org.
    16. Aknouche, Abdelhakim, 2015. "Unified quasi-maximum likelihood estimation theory for stable and unstable Markov bilinear processes," MPRA Paper 69572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Li, Dong & Zhang, Xingfa & Zhu, Ke & Ling, Shiqing, 2018. "The ZD-GARCH model: A new way to study heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 1-17.
    18. Li, Dong & Li, Muyi & Wu, Wuqing, 2014. "On dynamics of volatilities in nonstationary GARCH models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 86-90.
    19. Bibi, Abdelouahab & Ghezal, Ahmed, 2017. "Asymptotic properties of QMLE for periodic asymmetric strong and semi-strong GARCH models," MPRA Paper 81126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard & Rahbek, Anders, 2016. "Nonstationary GARCH with t-distributed innovations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 19-21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH models; Inconsistency of estimators; Local power of tests; Nonstationarity; Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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