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The Weather Effect: estimating the effect of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in Italy

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  • Alessandro Sforza

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of variation in voter turnout to electoral outcomes in Italy. I use data on spatial distribution of turnout for 2008 and 2013 to examine how it can affect differences in electoral outcomes. Exploiting the exogenous variation in weather conditions across municipalities I use rainfalls to instrument for turnout levels: if non-voters systematically differ from habitual voters in terms of their characteristics or preferences, the effect of turnout on the electoral outcome can generate "extreme" outcomes. I find that bad weather decreases turnout and that a higher turnout favours the Movimento 5 Stelle, while both the Democrats and the Centre are negatively affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Sforza, 2014. "The Weather Effect: estimating the effect of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in Italy," Working Papers w201405, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201405
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    5. Tucker, Harvey J. & Arnold Vedlitz, & DeNardo, James, 1986. "Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1291-1304, December.
    6. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bellani, Luna & Ceolotto, Stefano & Elsner, Benjamin & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Air Pollution Affects Decision-Making: Evidence from the Ballot Box," IZA Discussion Papers 14718, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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