IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w201405.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Weather Effect: estimating the effect of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Sforza

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of variation in voter turnout to electoral outcomes in Italy. I use data on spatial distribution of turnout for 2008 and 2013 to examine how it can affect differences in electoral outcomes. Exploiting the exogenous variation in weather conditions across municipalities I use rainfalls to instrument for turnout levels: if non-voters systematically differ from habitual voters in terms of their characteristics or preferences, the effect of turnout on the electoral outcome can generate "extreme" outcomes. I find that bad weather decreases turnout and that a higher turnout favours the Movimento 5 Stelle, while both the Democrats and the Centre are negatively affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Sforza, 2014. "The Weather Effect: estimating the effect of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in Italy," Working Papers w201405, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201405.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    2. Grofman, Bernard & Owen, Guillermo & Collet, Christian, 1999. "Rethinking the Partisan Effects of Higher Turnout: So What's the Question?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 357-376, June.
    3. Jack Citrin & Eric Schickler & John Sides, 2003. "What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 75-90, January.
    4. Nagel, Jack H. & McNulty, John E., 1996. "Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(4), pages 780-793, December.
    5. Tucker, Harvey J. & Arnold Vedlitz, & DeNardo, James, 1986. "Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1291-1304, December.
    6. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
    7. Hansford, Thomas G. & Gomez, Brad T., 2010. "Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 268-288, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jo Thori Lind, 2019. "Spurious weather effects," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 322-354, March.
    2. Bellani, Luna & Ceolotto, Stefano & Elsner, Benjamin & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Air Pollution Affects Decision-Making: Evidence from the Ballot Box," IZA Discussion Papers 14718, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-François Godbout, 2013. "Turnout and presidential coattails in congressional elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 333-356, October.
    2. John E. Mcnulty, 2005. "Phone-Based GOTV—What’s on the Line? Field Experiments with Varied Partisan Components, 2002-2003," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 601(1), pages 41-65, September.
    3. Katharina E. Hofer, 2019. "Estimating preferences for the performing arts from referendum votes," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 43(3), pages 397-419, September.
    4. Artés, Joaquín, 2014. "The rain in Spain: Turnout and partisan voting in Spanish elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 126-141.
    5. León, Gianmarco, 2017. "Turnout, political preferences and information: Experimental evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 56-71.
    6. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1463 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kere, Eric Nazindigouba & Choumert, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Combes, Jean Louis & Santoni, Olivier & Schwartz, Sonia, 2017. "Addressing Contextual and Location Biases in the Assessment of Protected Areas Effectiveness on Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 148-158.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iats1f0hh is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jean-François Maystadt & Valerie Mueller & Ashwini Sebastian, 2016. "Environmental Migration and Labor Markets in Nepal," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 417-452.
    10. Khasanboev, Temurbek & Hessami, Zohal, 2023. "Crisis Management and Local Political Accountability," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277676, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Martins, Rodrigo & Veiga, Francisco José, 2014. "Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 274-286.
    12. Godefroy, Raphael & Henry, Emeric, 2016. "Voter turnout and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 389-406.
    13. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Zohal Hessami & Temurbek Khasanboev, 2023. "Political selection when uncertainty is high," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 161-178, May.
    14. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2003. "Campagne électorale, préférences politiques et participation. Une étude empirique sur les élections législatives françaises de 1997," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    15. Marco Frank & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Electoral Turnout During States of Emergency and Effects on Incumbent Vote Share," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    16. Stefan Krasa & Mattias Polborn, 2014. "Policy Divergence and Voter Polarization in a Structural Model of Elections," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 31-76.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iats1f0hh is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Milan Vaishnav & Johnathan Guy, 2018. "Does Higher Turnout Hurt Incumbents? An Analysis of State Elections in India," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 6(1), pages 71-87, June.
    19. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    20. Lo Prete, Anna & Revelli, Federico, 2014. "Voter Turnout and City Performance," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201435, University of Turin.
    21. Marco Frank & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2023. "Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 529-555, July.
    22. bouayad-agha-Hamouche, salima & turpin, nadine & védrine, lionel, 2012. "Fostering the potential endogenous development of European regions: a spatial dynamic panel data analysis of the Cohesion Policy," MPRA Paper 65470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Hessami, Zohal & Khasanboev, Temurbek, 2024. "Gender Bias in the Reelection of Politicians (When a Crisis Strikes)," IZA Discussion Papers 17081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.