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Particle filters for partially observed diffusions

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  • Paul Fearnhead
  • Omiros Papaspiliopoulos
  • Gareth O. Roberts

Abstract

Summary. We introduce a novel particle filter scheme for a class of partially observed multivariate diffusions. We consider a variety of observation schemes, including diffusion observed with error, observation of a subset of the components of the multivariate diffusion and arrival times of a Poisson process whose intensity is a known function of the diffusion (Cox process). Unlike currently available methods, our particle filters do not require approximations of the transition and/or the observation density by using time discretizations. Instead, they build on recent methodology for the exact simulation of the diffusion process and the unbiased estimation of the transition density. We introduce the generalized Poisson estimator, which generalizes the Poisson estimator of Beskos and co‐workers. A central limit theorem is given for our particle filter scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Fearnhead & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts, 2008. "Particle filters for partially observed diffusions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 755-777, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:70:y:2008:i:4:p:755-777
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00661.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    2. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 335-338, July.
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    4. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
    5. João Nicolau, 2002. "A new technique for simulating the likelihood of stochastic differential equations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 91-103, June.
    6. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Briers & Arnaud Doucet & Simon Maskell, 2010. "Smoothing algorithms for state–space models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 62(1), pages 61-89, February.
    2. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
    3. Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Petros Dellaportas, 2007. "Inference for stochastic volatility models using time change transformations," Papers 0711.1594, arXiv.org.
    4. James Hodgson & Adam M. Johansen & Murray Pollock, 2022. "Unbiased Simulation of Rare Events in Continuous Time," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 2123-2148, September.
    5. Shoji, Isao, 2013. "Filtering for partially observed diffusion and its applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4966-4976.
    6. Paul Fearnhead & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Andrew Stuart, 2010. "Random‐weight particle filtering of continuous time processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(4), pages 497-512, September.
    7. N. Chopin & P. E. Jacob & O. Papaspiliopoulos, 2013. "SMC-super-2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(3), pages 397-426, June.
    8. Crucinio, Francesca R. & Johansen, Adam M., 2023. "Properties of marginal sequential Monte Carlo methods," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Johansen, Adam M. & Doucet, Arnaud, 2008. "A note on auxiliary particle filters," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(12), pages 1498-1504, September.
    10. Jourdain Benjamin & Sbai Mohamed, 2007. "Exact retrospective Monte Carlo computation of arithmetic average Asian options," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 135-171, July.
    11. Peter J. Diggle & Raquel Menezes & Ting‐li Su, 2010. "Geostatistical inference under preferential sampling," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(2), pages 191-232, March.
    12. Ajay Jasra & Kody Law & Carina Suciu, 2020. "Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(3), pages 548-579, December.
    13. Iacus, Stefano Maria & Uchida, Masayuki & Yoshida, Nakahiro, 2009. "Parametric estimation for partially hidden diffusion processes sampled at discrete times," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(5), pages 1580-1600, May.
    14. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Making inference of British household's happiness efficiency: A Bayesian latent model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 312-326.
    15. Hermann Singer, 2011. "Continuous-discrete state-space modeling of panel data with nonlinear filter algorithms," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(4), pages 375-413, December.
    16. Panayotis Michaelides & Mike Tsionas & Panos Xidonas, 2020. "A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 551-585, September.
    17. Murray, Lawrence M., 2015. "Bayesian State-Space Modelling on High-Performance Hardware Using LibBi," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i10).

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