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Market†based estimates of implicit government guarantees in European financial institutions

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  • Lei Zhao

Abstract

I exploit the price differential of credit default swap (CDS) contracts written on debts with different levels of seniority to measure the implicit government guarantees enjoyed by European financial institutions from 2005 to 2013. I determine that the aggregate guarantee increased substantially during the recent financial crises and peaked at an average of 89 bps in 2011. My analysis suggests that the extent of implicit support depends on the type of financial institutions and there exists a eurozone effect. Further investigation of feedback relationship shows that the guarantee implicitly offered by a government positively ‘Granger causes’ the sovereign's default risk.

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  • Lei Zhao, 2018. "Market†based estimates of implicit government guarantees in European financial institutions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(1), pages 79-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:24:y:2018:i:1:p:79-112
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12124
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    3. Addo, Kwabena Aboah & Hussain, Nazim & Iqbal, Jamshed, 2021. "Corporate Governance and Banking Systemic Risk: A Test of the Bundling Hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Huang, Xiaoyong & Yu, Cong & Chen, Yunping & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun, 2022. "Rigid payment breaking, default spread and yields of Chinese treasury bonds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Bellia, Mario & Heynderickx, Wouter & Maccaferri, Sara & Schich, Sebastian, 2020. "Do CDS markets care about the G-SIB status?," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2020-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    6. Mario Bellia & Sara Maccaferri & Sebastian Schich, 2022. "Limiting too-big-to-fail: market reactions to policy announcements and actions," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 368-389, December.

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