IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v41y2010i5p443-451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime

Author

Listed:
  • Yuanlong Ge
  • Holly H. Wang
  • Sung K. Ahn

Abstract

This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long‐run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:41:y:2010:i:5:p:443-451
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00456.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00456.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00456.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Dragan Miljkovic, 2009. "US and Canadian livestock prices: market integration and trade dependence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 183-193.
    3. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    4. Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005. "International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
    5. Hun Y. Park & Anil K. Bera, 1987. "Interest‐Rate Volatility, Basis Risk and Heteroscedasticity in Hedging Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 79-97, June.
    6. Pan, Suwen & Welch, Mark & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Ethridge, Don E., 2005. "Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 6(2), pages 1-16.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    8. Sapir, Andre & Trachtman, Joel P., 2008. "Subsidization, price suppression, and expertise: causation and precision in Upland Cotton," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 183-209, January.
    9. Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2007. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 719-737, August.
    10. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen, 2009. "U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49324, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Paul L. Fackler & Hüseyin Tastan, 2008. "Estimating the Degree of Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), pages 69-85.
    12. Mohamadou Fadiga & Samarendu Mohanty & Mark Welch & Suwen Pan, 2008. "Doha development agenda: implications for the US and world cotton markets," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 135-153.
    13. Dwi Susanto & C. Parr Rosson & Flynn J Adcock, 2008. "Market integration and convergence to the law of one price in the North American onion markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 177-191.
    14. Jian Yang & Jin Zhang & David J. Leatham, 2003. "Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 37-50, May.
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Pan, Suwen & Welch, Mark & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Ethridge, Don E., 2005. "Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market: Technical Annex," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 6(2), pages 1-7.
    19. Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu, 2005. "Price relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 491-514, May.
    20. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    21. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 1996. "Linkages between agricultural commodity futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 595-609, August.
    22. G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
    23. Du, Wen & Wang, H. Holly, 2004. "Price behavior in China's wheat futures market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 215-229.
    24. G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
    25. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
    26. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    27. John Baffes, 1991. "Some Further Evidence on the Law of One Price: The Law of One Price Still Holds," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1264-1273.
    28. Jernigan, Ed, 2005. "ZHENGZHOU COTTON FUTURES: A CHINESE SUCCESS STORY (PowerPoint Presentation)," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2005 32829, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    29. Mesbah Motamed & Kenneth A. Foster & Wallace E. Tyner, 2008. "Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 29-39, July.
    30. Linda Warell, 2006. "Market Integration in the International Coal Industry: A Cointegration Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 99-118.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Meilin & Delgado, Michael S. & Wang, H. Holly, 2024. "Risk, arbitrage, and spatial price relationships: Insights from China's hog market under the African Swine Fever," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Michael Delgado & Meilin Ma & H. Holly Wang, 2021. "Exploring Spatial Price Relationships: The Case of African Swine Fever in China," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stanislav Yugay & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2024. "Impact of the Ruble exchange rate regime and Russia's war in Ukraine on wheat prices in Russia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 384-411, March.
    4. MacDonald, Stephen & Gale, Fred & Hansen, James, 2015. "Cotton Policy in China," MPRA Paper 70863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tao Chen & Liang Wu & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2013. "On the Use of International Commodity Futures Spread for Forecasting China's Net Imports of Commodities," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 861-879, July.
    6. Wang, Ping & Kinnucan, Henry W. & Duffy, Patricia A., 2017. "Effects of China's Rising Labor Costs on the World Cotton Market," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258431, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.
    8. Xiaokang Hou & Shah Fahad & Peipei Zhao & Beibei Yan & Tianjun Liu, 2022. "The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    9. repec:ags:ijag24:346854 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kabbiri, Ronald & Dora, Manoj & Elepu, Gabriel & Gellynck, Xavier, 2016. "A Global Perspective of Food Market Integration: A Review," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 55(1-2), May.
    11. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Amrinder Singh & Tarun Kumar Soni, 2021. "Price Transmission in Cotton Futures Market: Evidence from Three Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, September.
    13. Mert Demir & Terrence F. Martell & Jun Wang, 2019. "The trilogy of China cotton markets: The lead–lag relationship among spot, forward, and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 522-534, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ge, Yuanlong & Wang, H. Holly & Ahn, Sung K., 2008. "Implication of Cotton Price Behavior on Market Integration," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37623, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    3. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    4. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bakari, Sayef, 2018. "The Impact of Domestic Investment on Economic Growth New Policy Analysis from Algeria," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 35-51, March.
    6. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    7. Chiang, Thomas C., 1997. "Time series dynamics of short-term interest rates: evidence from Eurocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 201-220, October.
    8. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2015. "La Paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka – Evidencia para Colombia durante 1925-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 4-24, June.
    9. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, January.
    10. Apostolos G. Christopoulos & Spyros Papathanasiou & Petros Kalantonis & Andreas Chouliaras & Savvas Katsikides, 2014. "An Investigation of Cointegration and Casualty Relationships between the PIIGS’ Stock Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 109-123.
    11. Sinha, Avik & Bhattacharya, Joysankar, 2014. "Is Economic Liberalization causing Environmental Degradation in India? An Analysis of Interventions," MPRA Paper 102262, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    12. Jaruwan Chontanawat, 2020. "Dynamic Modelling of Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emission, and Economic Growth in SE Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-27, December.
    13. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
    14. Thongphet Lamphayphan & Toshihisa Toyoda & Chris Czerkawsk & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Export Supply of Electricity from Laos to Thailand: An Econometric Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 450-460.
    15. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2013. "La paradoja Feldstein – Horioka: Evidencia para Colombia (1925 – 2011)," Documentos de Trabajo 12393, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    16. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Sattar, Rashid, 2010. "Trade, Growth and Povety: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 20904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Avik Sinha, 2015. "Modeling Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth: Evidences from India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 96-104.
    18. Drakos, Konstantinos & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Opposites attract: The case of Greek and Turkish financial markets," ZEI Working Papers B 06-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    19. Vanegas Sr., Manuel & Croes, Robertico, 2007. "Tourism, Economic Expansion and Poverty in Nicaragua: Investigating Cointegration and Causal Relations," Staff Papers 7306, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    20. Xiaojie Xu, 2018. "Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1889-1923, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:41:y:2010:i:5:p:443-451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.