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Price relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures

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  • Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu

Abstract

This paper examines the relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures price series using the Perron (1997) unit root test and autoregressive multivariate cointegration models. Accounting for the significant seasonal factors and time trends, we find the three series are cointegrated with one single cointegrating vector, whose coefficients are comparable to the ratios used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Ex‐post trading simulations that utilize the cointegration results generate significant profits, suggesting that market expectations may not fully incorporate the mean‐reverting tendencies as indicated by the cointegration relations, and that inefficiency exists in these three commodity futures markets. Results from our ex‐ante trading simulations that employ the USDA ratios also provide some evidence in this regard. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:491–514, 2005

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  • Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu, 2005. "Price relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 491-514, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:25:y:2005:i:5:p:491-514
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2007. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 719-737, August.
    2. Crentsil Kofi Agyekum & Haifeng Huang & Jianshu Chen, 2017. "The impact of the Chinese cornstarch futures on spot market and corn futures market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1405580-140, January.
    3. Kai Ye & Yangheran Piao & Kun Zhao & Xiaohui Cui, 2021. "A Heterogeneous Graph Enhanced LSTM Network for Hog Price Prediction Using Online Discussion," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Georg Lehecka, 2015. "Do hedging and speculative pressures drive commodity prices, or the other way round?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 575-603, September.
    5. Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    6. Alexakis, Christos & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Dowling, Michael, 2017. "Do cointegrated commodities bubble together? the case of hog, corn, and soybean," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 96-102.

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