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Interest‐Rate Volatility, Basis Risk and Heteroscedasticity in Hedging Mortgages

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  • Hun Y. Park
  • Anil K. Bera

Abstract

This paper investigates the validity of the OLS regression to estimate the hedge ratio for mortgages (GNMA) and provides alternative methodologies. In particular, this paper is concerned with the variance structure (conditional and unconditional heteroscedasticities) and the misspecification (nonlinearities) of the simple linear regression model for direct as well as cross‐hedging. Using data on spot prices of GNMA and futures prices of GNMAs and T‐bills for the period September 1979 to January 1985, we show that there exists significant heteroscedasticity particularly for cross‐hedging, and nonlinearity between cash and futures prices for direct as well as cross‐hedging. Alternative hedge ratio estimates are provided using the Box‐Cox transformation model and an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) Model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hun Y. Park & Anil K. Bera, 1987. "Interest‐Rate Volatility, Basis Risk and Heteroscedasticity in Hedging Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 79-97, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:15:y:1987:i:2:p:79-97
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00420
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    Cited by:

    1. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro, 2016. "A Bayesian non-parametric approach to asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model with application to portfolio selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 814-829.
    2. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. V. Lakshina V. & K. Lapshina A. & В. Лакшина В. & К. Лапшина А., 2016. "Сравнительный Анализ Стратегий Хеджирования Фьючерсами Портфеля Ценных Бумаг // Comparative Analysis Of Strategies For Hedging A Securities Portfolio With Futures," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(5), pages 105-114.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    5. Lee, Taehyun & Moutzouris, Ioannis C & Papapostolou, Nikos C & Fatouh, Mahmoud, 2023. "Foreign exchange hedging using regime-switching models: the case of pound sterling," Bank of England working papers 1042, Bank of England.
    6. De Toldi, M. & Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 1995. "Prepayment analysis for securitization," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-70, March.
    7. Alexandros Koulis & Constantinos Kyriakopoulos, 2021. "Hedge ratio estimation: A note on the Bitcoin future contract," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 125-131.
    8. Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    9. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    10. Dar-Hsin Chen & Leo Bin & Chun-Yi Tseng, 2014. "Hedging Effectiveness of Applying Constant and Time-Varying Hedge Ratios: Evidence from Taiwan Stock Index Spot and Futures," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 31-49.
    11. Koulis Alexandros & Kaimakamis George & Beneki Christina, 2018. "Hedging effectiveness for international index futures markets," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 149-159, July.

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