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Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico

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  • Mesbah Motamed
  • Kenneth A. Foster
  • Wallace E. Tyner

Abstract

The impact of U.S.‐grown maize on Mexican markets is a subject of heated debate, and is complicated by limited substitution between white and yellow maize as well as regional price differences within Mexico. This article improves on previous analyses using a detailed data set of white maize prices reported weekly in 11 states across Mexico from 1998 through 2005. Using cointegration analysis and the error‐correction model, we find that prices between the United States and Mexico do not share a common long‐run relationship. Within Mexico, prices in Michoacán and Oaxaca are only weakly related with prices in neighboring states, whereas prices in Sinaloa and Jalisco exert considerable influence on prices elsewhere in Mexico. We conclude that, despite North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), white maize prices in Mexico are determined by local conditions including particularly the degree of integration to other regions within Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Mesbah Motamed & Kenneth A. Foster & Wallace E. Tyner, 2008. "Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 29-39, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:39:y:2008:i:1:p:29-39
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00312.x
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    1. Amikuzuno, Joseph & Donkor, Samuel, 2012. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 85th Annual Conference, April 18-20, 2011, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 108943, Agricultural Economics Society.
    3. Mayaka, Venny K., 2013. "An Assessment Of Dry Beans Market Integration In Selected Markets In Kenya," Research Theses 157599, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Dyer, George A. & Taylor, J. Edward, 2011. "The Corn Price Surge: Impacts on Rural Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1878-1887.
    5. Araujo-Enciso, Sergio Rene, 2009. "Evidence of non-linear price transmission between maize markets in Mexico and the US," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51366, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Amikuzuno, Joseph & Ihle, Rico, 2010. "Seasonal Asymmetric Price Transmission in Ghanaian Tomato Markets: Adapting Johansen’s Estimation Method," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96814, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    7. Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    8. Lemus, David Magaña & Bessler, David A., 2014. "Price Dynamics in Agricultural Markets: Relationships between the U.S. and Mexico," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169736, Agricultural Economics Society.
    9. Chen, Bo & Saghaian, Sayed, 2016. "Market Integration and Price Transmission in theWorld Rice Export Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-14.
    10. Tione, Sarah Ephridah, 2011. "Analysis of Effectiveness of Modern Information and Communication Technologies on Maize Marketing Efficiency in Lilongwe and Dedza Districts and Selected Markets of Malawi," Research Theses 198525, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    11. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border effects on spatial price transmission between fresh tomato markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any case for promoting trans-border trade in West Africa?," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 9, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    12. Araujo-Encisco, Sergio, 2011. "Analisis de transmision de precios entre los mercados de maiz mexicanos y el mercado estadounidense: metodos lineales y no lineales," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 229, pages 1-40.

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