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Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications

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  • Caitlin Hall

Abstract

This paper explores the design and implementation of prediction markets, markets strategically constructed to aggregate traders' beliefs about future events. It posits that prediction markets are particularly useful as forecasting tools where traders are constrained - legally, politically, professionally, or bureaucratically - from directly sharing the information that underlies their beliefs. It concludes by articulating a possible design for such a market, as an alternative to a Pentagon program that collapsed amid public outcry in 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Caitlin Hall, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(1), pages 27-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:4:y:2010:i:1:p:27-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    2. Buckley, Patrick, 2016. "Harnessing the wisdom of crowds: Decision spaces for prediction markets," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 85-94.
    3. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    4. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.

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