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The Power Of Wagering On Power Conferences

Author

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  • Kevin Krieger
  • Clay Girdner
  • Andy Fodor
  • David Kirch

Abstract

We study the perceived discrepancy between power conference and mid-major college football teams by examining outcomes of games when these teams face one another. We find that point spreads are set statistically irrationally in games where power conference teams play mid-major teams. We examine all regular season games from the 2002-2011 seasons and find power conference teams cover the spread in a majority of games when facing a mid-major team to an extent that results in profitability over a ten-year period. We find that consistently betting power conference teams will cover point spreads when facing mid-major teams’ results in a return of roughly 2.94% over these seasons. Taking into account Associated Press rankings, the size of point spreads, and the week of the season when games are played, results in even greater profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Krieger & Clay Girdner & Andy Fodor & David Kirch, 2013. "The Power Of Wagering On Power Conferences," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(1), pages 13-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:13-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Randall W. Bennett, 2019. "Holdover Bias in the College Football Betting Market," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 103-110, March.
    2. Evan Moore & James Francisco, 2019. "Efficiency, Profitability, and College Football: do Bettors Overrate the Major Conferences in Interconference Play?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 159-167, June.
    3. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    4. Moore, Evan, 2021. "A comment on Paul, Weinbach, and Wilson’s (2004) “Efficient markets, fair bets, and profitability in NBA totals 1995-96 to 2001-02”," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 26-29.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports Wagering; Efficient Markets; College Football; Point Spreads; NCAA; Bookmakers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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