IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/buc/jpredm/v6y2012i1p1-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Modeling Forecasts Of Equity Price Movements In Cases Of Insider Trading

Author

Listed:
  • William Mallios

Abstract

Case studies examine the extent to which insider trades in financial markets are a reflection of publicly-based forecasts based on (1) candlestick charts and (2) adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time processes depicted in such charts. ADM accommodates both gradual Darwinian-type market drift and punctuated Gould-Eldridge-type drift associated with market volatility. Covariates in ADM may include mosaic variables, currently a main line of defense for those accused of insider trading. Empirical studies suggest varying degrees of uncertainty in distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate trading in terms of resulting price movements.

Suggested Citation

  • William Mallios, 2012. "Dynamic Modeling Forecasts Of Equity Price Movements In Cases Of Insider Trading," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:1-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/494
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William Mallios, 2012. "Forecasting National Football League Game Outcomes Relative to Betting Spreads," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    insider trading: evidence and counter evidence; bullish/bearish graphical patterns; dynamic modeling forecasts; time varying cointegrated processes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:1-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dominic Cortis, University of Malta (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.