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Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry

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  • Martin Waitz
  • Andreas Mild

Abstract

Corporate prediction markets forecast business issues like market shares, sales volumes or the success rates of new product developments. The improvement of its accuracy is a major topic in prediction market research. Mostly, such markets are using a continuous double auction market mechanism. We propose a method that aggregates the data provided by such a prediction market in a different way by only accounting for the most knowledgeable market participants. We demonstrate its predictive ability with a real world experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Waitz & Andreas Mild, 2009. "Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(3), pages 49-62, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:3:y:2009:i:3:p:49-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    2. Buckley, Patrick, 2016. "Harnessing the wisdom of crowds: Decision spaces for prediction markets," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 85-94.
    3. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    4. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.

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