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Ideas Markets: Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Franz Horn
  • Bjoern Sven Ivens
  • Michael Ohneberg
  • Alexander Brem

Abstract

In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 304 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results are further compared to two previous works published by Zhao, Wagner and Chen (2008) and Tziralis and Tatsiopoulos (2007a). The article concludes with an extended bibliography section and may therefore serve as a guidance and basis for further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Franz Horn & Bjoern Sven Ivens & Michael Ohneberg & Alexander Brem, 2014. "Ideas Markets: Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(2), pages 89-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:8:y:2014:i:2:p:89-126
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nina Badulina & Dmitry Shatilovich & Mikhail Zhitlukhin, 2024. "On convergence of forecasts in prediction markets," Papers 2402.16345, arXiv.org.
    2. Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018. "Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 696-710.
    3. Auld, Tom & Linton, Oliver, 2019. "The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 371-389.
    4. Marco Mantovani & Antonio Filippin, 2024. "When do prediction markets return average beliefs? Experimental evidence," Working Papers 532, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    5. Auld, T., 2022. "Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2263, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Auld, T., 2022. "Political markets as equity price factors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2264, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Mohamed Habuba Halima & Yongjun Li & Usman Ghani & Ataullah Kiani & Atamba Cynthia, 2021. "Impact of Online Crisis Response Strategies on Online Purchase Intention: The Roles of Online Brand Attitude and Brand Perceived Usefulness," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    8. Camerer, Colin & Dreber, Anna & Forsell, Eskil & Ho, Teck-Hua & Huber, Jurgen & Johannesson, Magnus & Kirchler, Michael & Almenberg, Johan & Altmejd, Adam & Chan, Taizan & Heikensten, Emma & Holzmeist, 2016. "Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in Economics," MPRA Paper 75461, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prediction Markets; Literature Review; Streams of Research; Article Classification; Information Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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