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Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods

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Cited by:

  1. Ediev, Dalkhat M. & Sanderson, Warren C. & Scherbov, Sergei, 2019. "The inverse relationship between life expectancy-induced changes in the old-age dependency ratio and the prospective old-age dependency ratio," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-10.
  2. Lucia Zanotto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
  3. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  4. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  5. Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Robert Schoen, 2005. "Age-specific contributions to changes in the period and cohort life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(3), pages 63-82.
  6. Pinheiro, Pedro Cisalpino & Queiroz, Bernardo L, 2018. "Regional Disparities in Brazilian Adult Mortality: an analysis using Modal Age at Death (M) and Compression of Mortality (IQR)," OSF Preprints t2ey3, Center for Open Science.
  7. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
  8. Heba Soltan Mohamed & M. Masoom Ali & Haitham M. Yousof, 2023. "The Lindley Gompertz Model for Estimating the Survival Rates: Properties and Applications in Insurance," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(5), pages 1199-1216, October.
  9. Shiro Horiuchi & Nadine Ouellette & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Jean-Marie Robine, 2013. "Modal age at death: lifespan indicator in the era of longevity extension," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 11(1), pages 37-69.
  10. Marius D. Pascariu & Ugofilippo Basellini & José Manuel Aburto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2020. "The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, October.
  11. Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K., 2015. "Forecasting life expectancy: Evidence from a new survival function," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 208-226.
  12. Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Jean-Marie Robine & Fred Paccaud & Alfio Marazzi, 2009. "Dissecting the compression of mortality in Switzerland, 1876-2005," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(19), pages 569-598.
  13. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2013. "Long-run trends of human aging and longevity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1303-1323, October.
  14. Alessandro Feraldi & Virginia Zarulli & Stefano Mazzuco & Cristina Giudici, 2024. "Functional data analysis approach in population studies: an application to the gender gap in life expectancy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5125-5150, December.
  15. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310.
  16. Monika Papież & Sabina Denkowska, 2010. "The Analysis of Mortality Changes In Selected European Countries in the Period 1960–2006," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 11(3), pages 563-584, December.
  17. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
  18. Strulik, Holger, 2015. "Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 5-12.
  19. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2011. "A Dynamic Extension of the Period Life Table," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(34), pages 831-854.
  20. Alyson van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Lifespan Variation by Occupational Class: Compression or Stagnation Over Time?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 73-95, February.
  21. Gao, Huan & Mamon, Rogemar & Liu, Xiaoming & Tenyakov, Anton, 2015. "Mortality modelling with regime-switching for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 108-120.
  22. Szymański Andrzej & Rossa Agnieszka, 2021. "The Complex-Number Mortality Model (CNMM) based on orthonormal expansion of membership functions," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 22(3), pages 31-57, September.
  23. Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K, 2015. "Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function," CEI Working Paper Series 2015-1, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  24. Edouard Debonneuil & Anne Eyraud-Loisel & Frédéric Planchet, 2018. "Can Pension Funds Partially Manage Longevity Risk by Investing in a Longevity Megafund?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, July.
  25. Ugofilippo Basellini & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Adam Lenart, 2019. "Location–Scale Models in Demography: A Useful Re-parameterization of Mortality Models," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 645-673, October.
  26. Yahia Salhi & Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond & Julien Tomas, 2016. "A Credibility Approach of the Makeham Mortality Law," Post-Print hal-01232683, HAL.
  27. Andrzej Szymański & Agnieszka Rossa, 2021. "The Complex-Number Mortality Model (CNMM) based on orthonormal expansion of membership function," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(3), pages 31-57, September.
  28. Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton, 2017. "Compression of mortality: the evolution in the variability in the age of death in Latin America," OSF Preprints pdnfk, Center for Open Science.
  29. María-Dolores Huete-Morales & Esteban Navarrete-Álvarez & María-Jesús Rosales-Moreno & María-José Del-Moral-Ávila & José-Manuel Quesada-Rubio, 2020. "Modelling the survival function of the Spanish population by the Wong–Tsui model with the incorporation of frailty and covariates," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 151-163, August.
  30. Matthias Börger & Martin Genz & Jochen Ruß, 2018. "Extension, Compression, and Beyond: A Unique Classification System for Mortality Evolution Patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1343-1361, August.
  31. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan Edwards, 2011. "Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(21), pages 497-526.
  32. Fanny Janssen & Leo Wissen & Anton Kunst, 2013. "Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1341-1362, August.
  33. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
  34. Dustin Brown & Mark Hayward & Jennifer Montez & Robert Hummer & Chi-Tsun Chiu & Mira Hidajat, 2012. "The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 819-840, August.
  35. Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2008. "The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(30), pages 1179-1204.
  36. A. Roger Thatcher & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Shiro Horiuchi & Jean-Marie Robine, 2010. "The compression of deaths above the mode," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(17), pages 505-538.
  37. Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2013. "Modelling and projecting mortality improvement rates using a cohort perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 150-168.
  38. Dalkhat M. Ediev, 2009. "Extrapolative Projections of Mortality: Towards a More Consistent Method," VID Working Papers 0803, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  39. Dalkhat M. Ediev, 2013. "Decompression of Period Old-Age Mortality: When Adjusted for Bias, the Variance in the Ages at Death Shows Compression," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 137-154, July.
  40. Massimiliano Menzietti & Maria Francesca Morabito & Manuela Stranges, 2019. "Mortality Projections for Small Populations: An Application to the Maltese Elderly," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-25, March.
  41. Hwang Yawen & Huang Hong-Chih, 2012. "Modified Logistic Model for Mortality Forecasting and the Application of Mortality-Linked Securities," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
  42. Cadena, Meitner & Denuit, Michel, 2016. "Semi-parametric accelerated hazard relational models with applications to mortality projections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.
  43. Alyson A. van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2012. "Lifespan variation by occupational class: compression or stagnation over time?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  44. Trifon Missov & Adam Lenart & Laszlo Nemeth & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & James W. Vaupel, 2015. "The Gompertz force of mortality in terms of the modal age at death," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(36), pages 1031-1048.
  45. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2014. "Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 51-71, February.
  46. Jorge M. Uribe & Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillen, 2018. "Trends in the Quantiles of the Life Table Survivorship Function," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 793-817, December.
  47. Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2010. "Three measures of longevity: Time trends and record values," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 299-312, May.
  48. Isaac Sasson, 2016. "Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 269-293, April.
  49. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01232683 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2010. "A comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  51. Ryan D. Edwards, 2010. "Trends in World Inequality in Life Span Since 1970," NBER Working Papers 16088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
  53. Joel E. Cohen & Christina Bohk-Ewald & Roland Rau, 2018. "Gompertz, Makeham, and Siler models explain Taylor's law in human mortality data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(29), pages 773-842.
  54. Péter Vékás, 2020. "Rotation of the age pattern of mortality improvements in the European Union," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 1031-1048, September.
  55. Annette Baudisch & Jose Manuel Aburto, 2024. "How lifespan and life years lost equate to unity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(24), pages 643-666.
  56. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
  57. Fanny Janssen & Anton Kunst & Johan Mackenbach, 2007. "Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline in seven European countries, 1950–1999: the role of smoking and other factors earlier in life," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 171-188, June.
  58. Ting Li & Yang Yang & James Anderson, 2013. "Mortality Increase in Late-Middle and Early-Old Age: Heterogeneity in Death Processes as a New Explanation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1563-1591, October.
  59. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
  60. Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau, 2011. "Changes in the age-at-death distribution in four low mortality countries: A nonparametric approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(19), pages 595-628.
  61. Sergei Scherbov & Dalkhat Ediev, 2016. "Does selection of mortality model make a difference in projecting population ageing?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(2), pages 39-62.
  62. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Kjærgaard, Søren & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni, 2020. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 129-143.
  63. Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.
  64. Dennis M. Feehan, 2018. "Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2025-2044, December.
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