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Mortality Increase in Late-Middle and Early-Old Age: Heterogeneity in Death Processes as a New Explanation

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  • Ting Li
  • Yang Yang
  • James Anderson

Abstract

Deviations from the Gompertz law of exponential mortality increases in late-middle and early-old age are commonly neglected in overall mortality analyses. In this study, we examined mortality increase patterns between ages 40 and 85 in 16 low-mortality countries and demonstrated sex differences in these patterns, which also changed across period and cohort. These results suggest that the interaction between aging and death is more complicated than what is usually assumed from the Gompertz law and also challenge existing biodemographic hypotheses about the origin and mechanisms of sex differences in mortality. We propose a two-mortality model that explains these patterns as the change in the composition of intrinsic and extrinsic death rates with age. We show that the age pattern of overall mortality and the population heterogeneity therein are possibly generated by multiple dynamics specified by a two-mortality model instead of a uniform process throughout most adult ages. Copyright Population Association of America 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Ting Li & Yang Yang & James Anderson, 2013. "Mortality Increase in Late-Middle and Early-Old Age: Heterogeneity in Death Processes as a New Explanation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1563-1591, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:50:y:2013:i:5:p:1563-1591
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0222-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hans Oluf Hansen, 2015. "Modeling and projecting mortality. A new model of heterogeneity and selection in survivorship," Discussion Papers 15-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Ernest Lo & Dan Vatnik & Andrea Benedetti & Robert Bourbeau, 2016. "Variance models of the last age interval and their impact on life expectancy at subnational scales," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(15), pages 399-454.
    4. David J. Sharrow & James J. Anderson, 2016. "Quantifying Intrinsic and Extrinsic Contributions to Human Longevity: Application of a Two-Process Vitality Model to the Human Mortality Database," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(6), pages 2105-2119, December.
    5. Xiaobai Zhu & Kenneth Q. Zhou & Zijia Wang, 2024. "A new paradigm of mortality modeling via individual vitality dynamics," Papers 2407.15388, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

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