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Extension, Compression, and Beyond: A Unique Classification System for Mortality Evolution Patterns

Author

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  • Matthias Börger

    (Institut für Finanz- und Aktuarwissenschaften (ifa))

  • Martin Genz

    (Institut für Finanz- und Aktuarwissenschaften (ifa)
    Universität Ulm)

  • Jochen Ruß

    (Institut für Finanz- und Aktuarwissenschaften (ifa)
    Universität Ulm)

Abstract

A variety of literature addresses the question of how the age distribution of deaths changes over time as life expectancy increases. However, corresponding terms such as extension, compression, or rectangularization are sometimes defined only vaguely, and statistics used to detect certain scenarios can be misleading. The matter is further complicated because mixed scenarios can prevail, and the considered age range can have an impact on observed mortality patterns. In this article, we establish a unique classification framework for realized mortality scenarios that allows for the detection of both pure and mixed scenarios. Our framework determines whether changes of the deaths curve over time show elements of extension or contraction; compression or decompression; left- or right-shifting mortality; and concentration or diffusion. The framework not only can test the presence of a particular scenario but also can assign a unique scenario to any observed mortality evolution. Furthermore, it can detect different mortality scenarios for different age ranges in the same population. We also present a methodology for the implementation of our classification framework and apply it to mortality data for U.S. females.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Börger & Martin Genz & Jochen Ruß, 2018. "Extension, Compression, and Beyond: A Unique Classification System for Mortality Evolution Patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1343-1361, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:55:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-018-0694-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-018-0694-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. A. Roger Thatcher & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Shiro Horiuchi & Jean-Marie Robine, 2010. "The compression of deaths above the mode," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(17), pages 505-538.
    3. Väinö Kannisto, 2000. "Measuring the compression of mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6).
    4. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
    5. John Wilmoth & Shiro Horiuchi, 1999. "Rectangularization revisited: Variability of age at death within human populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 475-495, November.
    6. Siu Cheung & Jean-Marie Robine & Edward Tu & Graziella Caselli, 2005. "Three dimensions of the survival curve: horizontalization, verticalization, and longevity extension," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(2), pages 243-258, May.
    7. Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2008. "The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(30), pages 1179-1204.
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    Cited by:

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