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Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care

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  • Strulik, Holger

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory of aging and longevity according to which the probability to survive at any age depends on the number of health deficits accumulated, as suggested by modern biology. I calibrate the model for a reference U.S. citizen and exploit the fact that the association between health deficits and mortality has been estimated with great precision in gerontology. This allows me to use the model for quantitative experiments. I compare health expenditure, health deficits, and the value of life for richer and poorer individuals. The model motivates a strong socioeconomic gradient of health. It explains how income growth and advances in medical technology and the induced increase in health care demand led to large reductions in health deficits and roughly a doubling of the value of life at all ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Strulik, Holger, 2015. "Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 5-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:6:y:2015:i:c:p:5-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.09.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiunn Wang & Laura Marsiliani & Thomas Renstrom, 2017. "Tax Reform, Unhealthy Commodities and Endogenous Health," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017_12, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    2. Carl‐Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Fetal origins—A life cycle model of health and aging from conception to death," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1276-1290, June.
    3. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2018. "Hyperbolic discounting can be good for your health," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-57.
    4. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2023. "Anticipation of deteriorating health and information avoidance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    6. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "Going from bad to worse: Adaptation to poor health health spending, longevity, and the value of life," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 130-146.
    7. Jochen Hartwig & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2018. "Testing the Grossman model of medical spending determinants with macroeconomic panel data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(8), pages 1067-1086, November.
    8. Katharina E. Blankart & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The Effects of Off-label Drug Use on Disability and Medical Expenditure," NBER Working Papers 30440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "An economic theory of depression and its impact on health behavior and longevity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 269-287.
    10. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "The return to education in terms of wealth and health," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Smoking kills: An economic theory of addiction, health deficit accumulation, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Dragone, Davide & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Negligible senescence: An economic life cycle model for the future," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 264-285.
    13. Johannes Schuenemann & Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2020. "The Marriage Gap: Optimal Aging and Death in Partnerships," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 158-176, April.
    14. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Physiological Aging around the World and Economic Growth," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 375, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Pablo Garcia-Sanchez & Olivier Pierrard, 2023. "Uncertain lifetime, health investment and welfare," BCL working papers 178, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    16. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Medical progress and life cycle choices," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    17. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "The gender gap in mortality: How much is explained by behavior?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 79-90.
    18. Trimborn, Timo & Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger, 2016. "Disentangling the Gender Gap in Longevity," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145570, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Michael Kuhn & Alexia Prskawetz & Uwe Sunde, 2014. "Health, education, and retirement over the prolonged life cycle: a selective survey of recent research," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22.
    20. Maria Carannante & Valeria D’Amato & Steven Haberman & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2024. "Frailty-based Lee–Carter family of stochastic mortality models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5081-5105, December.
    21. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Accounting for Fetal Origins: Health Capital vs. Health Deficits," Discussion Papers 17-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    22. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "I shouldn’t eat this donut: Self-control, body weight, and health in a life cycle model," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).

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    21. Harris, Matthew & Kohn, Jennifer, 2015. "Reference dependent utility from health and the demand for medical care," MPRA Paper 61926, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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