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Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis

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Cited by:

  1. Hartmann, Marcus & Hassan, Ali, 2006. "Application of real options analysis for pharmaceutical R&D project valuation--Empirical results from a survey," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 343-354, April.
  2. Jiao Wang & Lima Zhao & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2021. "Operations‐Finance Interface in Risk Management: Research Evolution and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(2), pages 355-389, February.
  3. Espinoza, R. David & Rojo, Javier, 2017. "Towards sustainable mining (Part I): Valuing investment opportunities in the mining sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 7-18.
  4. René Caldentey & Martin B. Haugh, 2009. "Supply Contracts with Financial Hedging," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 47-65, February.
  5. Maarten Ijzerman & Lotte Steuten, 2011. "Early assessment of medical technologies to inform product development and market access," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 331-347, September.
  6. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2010. "Valuing Multifactor Real Options Using an Implied Binomial Tree," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 185-195, June.
  7. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
  8. René Caldentey & Martin Haugh, 2006. "Optimal Control and Hedging of Operations in the Presence of Financial Markets," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 285-304, May.
  9. Alexander, David Richard & Mo, Mengjia & Stent, Alan Fraser, 2012. "Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 114-122.
  10. Lee, In & Shin, Yong Jae, 2018. "Fintech: Ecosystem, business models, investment decisions, and challenges," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 35-46.
  11. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap-Keung & Yen, Benjamin P.C., 2016. "Coordinating operational policy with financial hedging for risk-averse firms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB), pages 279-289.
  12. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
  13. Antonio L. Lara Galera & Antonio Sánchez Soliño, 2010. "A Real Options Approach for the Valuation of Highway Concessions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 416-427, August.
  14. Xin Chen & Melvyn Sim & David Simchi-Levi & Peng Sun, 2007. "Risk Aversion in Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 828-842, October.
  15. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.
  16. Atul Chandra & Peter R. Hartley & Gopalan Nair, 2022. "Multiple Volatility Real Options Approach to Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 79-98, June.
  17. Singh, Sachin & McAllister, Charles D. & Rinks, Dan & Jiang, Xiaoyue, 2010. "Implication of risk adjusted discount rates on cycle stock and safety stock in a multi-period inventory model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 187-195, January.
  18. Gastón Silverio Milanesi, 2022. "Opciones reales secuenciales cuadrinomiales y volatilidad cambiante: incertidumbres tecnológicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, Enero - M.
  19. Lin Zhao & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2013. "A Real Option Perspective on Valuing Gas Fields," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-126/VI/DSF60, Tinbergen Institute.
  20. Nyambane, Gerald G. & Black, J. Roy, 2004. "The Real Options Puzzle For Michigan Tart Cherry Producers," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20011, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  21. Lijian Lu & Xiaoming Yan, 2016. "Capacity investment decisions under risk aversion," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(3), pages 218-235, April.
  22. James E. Smith, 2005. "Alternative Approaches for Solving Real-Options Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 89-102, June.
  23. Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio & Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2008. "Potential dividends and actual cash flows. Theoretical and empirical reasons for using ‘actual’ and dismissing ‘potential’, Or: How not to pull potential rabbits out of actual hats," MPRA Paper 7266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Jorge Tarifa-Fernández & Ana María Sánchez-Pérez & Salvador Cruz-Rambaud, 2019. "Internet of Things and Their Coming Perspectives: A Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
  25. Manel Baucells & Samuel E. Bodily, 2024. "The Discount Rate for Investment Analysis Applying Expected Utility," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 125-141, June.
  26. Carlos Andres Zapata Quimbayo & Carlos Armando Mej¨ªa Vega, 2019. "Real Options Valuation in Gold Mining Projects under Multinomial Tree Approach," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 204-218, September.
  27. George, Gerard & Prabhu, Ganesh N., 2003. "Developmental financial institutions as technology policy instruments: implications for innovation and entrepreneurship in emerging economies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 89-108, January.
  28. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2010. "Average Internal Rate of Return and investment decisions: A new perspective," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0021, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  29. Zmeskal, Zdenek, 2010. "Generalised soft binomial American real option pricing model (fuzzy-stochastic approach)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 1096-1103, December.
  30. Josef Schosser, 2020. "Real Option Exercise Decisions in Information Technology Investments: a Comment," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-7, December.
  31. Robert Nau, 2001. "De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 89-124, December.
  32. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2002. "Investment decisions in the theory of finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 206-217, February.
  33. Espinoza, R. David & Rojo, Javier, 2015. "Using DNPV for valuing investments in the energy sector: A solar project case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 44-49.
  34. Lukas Auer, 2013. "SOA investment decision-making using real options analysis," International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 21-40.
  35. Vincenzina Messina & Valentina Bosetti, 2006. "Integrating stochastic programming and decision tree techniques in land conversion problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 243-258, February.
  36. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
  37. Shimbar, Ali & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2017. "The application of DNPV to unlock foreign direct investment in waste-to-energy in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 186-193.
  38. Leonardo P. Santiago & Pirooz Vakili, 2005. "On the Value of Flexibility in R&D Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(8), pages 1206-1218, August.
  39. Zdenìk Zmeškal, 2008. "Application of the American Real Flexible Switch Options Methodology A Generalized Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 261-275, August.
  40. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
  41. Rubtsov, Alexey, 2016. "Model misspecification and pricing of illiquid claims," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 242-249.
  42. David G. Luenberger, 2012. "Pricing dynamic binary variables and their derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 451-464, April.
  43. Mahdi Mattar & Charles Cheah, 2006. "Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty: private risk effects and real options," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 847-860.
  44. William W. Wilson & Lee Vetsch & David W. Bullock, 2022. "Valuing an agricultural technology startup using real options," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 771-785, October.
  45. Warren J. Hahn & James S. Dyer, 2011. "A Discrete Time Approach for Modeling Two-Factor Mean-Reverting Stochastic Processes," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 220-232, September.
  46. Abdel Sabour, S. A., 2001. "Dynamics of threshold prices for optimal switches: the case of mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 209-214, September.
  47. Sahoo, Nihar R. & Mohapatra, Pratap K.J. & Mahanty, Biswajit, 2017. "Compliance choice analysis for India's thermal power sector in the market-based energy efficiency regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 624-633.
  48. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, February.
  49. Babak Jafarizadeh, 2022. "Forecasts of Prices and Informed Sensitivity Analysis: Applications in Project Valuations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 205-219, September.
  50. Panos Kouvelis & Rong Li & Qing Ding, 2013. "Managing Storable Commodity Risks: The Role of Inventory and Financial Hedge," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 507-521, July.
  51. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Raul O. Chao & Samuel E. Bodily, 2012. "Habit Formation from Correlation Aversion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 625-637, June.
  52. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1998. "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 198-217, April.
  53. Jafarizadeh, Babak, 2012. "Information acquisition as an American option," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 807-816.
  54. Pendharkar, Parag C., 2010. "Valuing interdependent multi-stage IT investments: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 847-859, March.
  55. Bardia Kamrad & Akhtar Siddique & Ricardo Ernst, 2012. "Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 1-17, February.
  56. Gordon Hazen, 2009. "An Extension of the Internal Rate of Return to Stochastic Cash Flows," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1030-1034, June.
  57. Elena Katok & William Tarantino & Terry P. Harrison, 2003. "Investment in production resource flexibility: An empirical investigation of methods for planning under uncertainty," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 105-129, March.
  58. Stein Wallace, 2010. "Stochastic programming and the option of doing it differently," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 3-8, June.
  59. John R. Birge, 2000. "Option Methods for Incorporating Risk into Linear Capacity Planning Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 19-31, August.
  60. Serkan Erbis & Zeynep Ok & Jacqueline A. Isaacs & James C. Benneyan & Sagar Kamarthi, 2016. "Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(8), pages 1644-1665, August.
  61. Robert F. Nau, 2003. "A Generalization of Pratt-Arrow Measure to Nonexpected-Utility Preferences and Inseparable Probability and Utility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(8), pages 1089-1104, August.
  62. Hans Ulrich Buhl & Björn Steven Häckel & Florian Probst & Josef Schosser, 2016. "On the Ex Ante Valuation of IT Service Investments," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 415-432, December.
  63. Gunther Friedl & Björn Anton, 2010. "Anforderungen an ein wertorientiertes Management Accounting in Banken," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 62(61), pages 83-107, January.
  64. Sebastian Jaimungal & Yuri Lawryshyn, 2017. "Using managerial revenue and cost estimates to value early stage real option investments," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 259(1), pages 173-190, December.
  65. Chris Kenyon & Stathis Tompaidis, 2001. "Real Options in Leasing: The Effect of Idle Time," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 675-689, October.
  66. Zhou, Yuanqi & Yang, Jinqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2023. "Optimizing energy efficiency investments in steel firms: A real options model considering carbon trading and tax cuts during challenging economic conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  67. Mahan Tahvildari, 2021. "Forward indifference valuation and hedging of basis risk under partial information," Papers 2101.00251, arXiv.org.
  68. D. G. Luenberger, 2001. "Projection Pricing," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, April.
  69. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Miller, Luke T., 2010. "PMA license valuation: A Bayesian learning real options approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, January.
  71. Zhu, Lei & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty: How to make informed decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 742-762.
  72. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2007. "Project valuation and investment decisions: CAPM versus arbitrage," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 137-140.
  73. Vicky Henderson & David Hobson, 2013. "Risk Aversion, Indivisible Timing Options, and Gambling," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 126-137, February.
  74. Sheng-Hau Lin & Chia-Tsong Chen, 2020. "Pricing Rent for Social Housing Under Uncertainty," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-4.
  75. Janne Gustafsson & Ahti Salo, 2005. "Contingent Portfolio Programming for the Management of Risky Projects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 946-956, December.
  76. Carlo Alberto Magni & Ignacio Velez-Pareja, 2009. "Potential dividends versus actual cash flows in firm valuation," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración 5516, Master Consultores.
  77. William P. Fisher Jr., 2023. "Separation Theorems in Econometrics and Psychometrics: Rasch, Frisch, Two Fishers and Implications for Measurement," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 35(1), pages 29-60, January.
  78. David Laughton & Raul Guerrero & Donald Lessard, 2008. "Real Asset Valuation: A Back‐to‐basics Approach," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 20(2), pages 46-65, March.
  79. Sripad K. Devalkar & Ravi Anupindi & Amitabh Sinha, 2018. "Dynamic Risk Management of Commodity Operations: Model and Analysis," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 317-332, May.
  80. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
  81. Wang, Juite & Hwang, W.-L., 2007. "A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 247-257, June.
  82. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Andrianos E. Tsekrekos, 2024. "The Pay‐for‐Success Contract: A Valuation Note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(9), pages 1465-1473, September.
  83. Crocker, Thomas D. & Shogren, Jason F. & Turner, Paul R., 1998. "Incomplete beliefs and nonmarket valuation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-162, June.
  84. Hirbod Assa & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2017. "A Robust Approach to Hedging and Pricing in Imperfect Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
  85. Samuel Mongrut Montalván & Didac Ramírez Sarrió, 2005. "Discount Rates in Emerging Capital Markets," Finance 0501013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Sachon, Marc & Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth, 2002. "Managing technology development for safety-critical systems," IESE Research Papers D/465, IESE Business School.
  87. Balázs FazekasBalázs Fazekas, 2016. "Value-Creating Uncertainty – A Real Options Approach in Venture Capital," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 15(4), pages 151-166.
  88. Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei, 2010. "A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 627-637, May.
  89. Giovanni Villani & Marta Biancardi, 2022. "Competition and strategic alliance in R&D investments: a real option game approach with multiple experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 63-86, January.
  90. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2021. "Project Valuation: Price Forecasts Bound to Discount Rates," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 139-152, June.
  91. David Johnstone, 2017. "Sensitivity of the Discount Rate to the Expected Payoff in Project Valuation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(2), pages 126-136, June.
  92. Jing Ai & Patrick L. Brockett & Tianyang Wang, 2017. "Optimal Enterprise Risk Management and Decision Making With Shared and Dependent Risks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1127-1169, December.
  93. Andrea C. Hupman & Jay Simon, 2023. "The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, March.
  94. Luenberger, David G., 2002. "Arbitrage and universal pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1613-1628, August.
  95. John R. Birge, 2015. "OM Forum—Operations and Finance Interactions," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 4-15, February.
  96. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
  97. Jenny Jing Wang & Jianfu Shen & Frederik Pretorius, 2023. "Valuing options to renew at future market value: the case of commercial property leases," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, December.
  98. Secomandi, Nicola, 2022. "Quadratic hedging of risk neutral values," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  99. Luiz Brandão & James Dyer, 2005. "Decision Analysis and Real Options: A Discrete Time Approach to Real Option Valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 21-39, March.
  100. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1999. "Options in the Real World: Lessons Learned in Evaluating Oil and Gas Investments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 1-15, February.
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  103. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.
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  115. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
  116. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
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  127. Kumar, Ram L., 1999. "Understanding DSS value: an options perspective," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 295-304, June.
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  129. Guang Xiao & Nan Yang & Renyu Zhang, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Management Under Fluctuating Procurement Costs," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 321-334, July.
  130. Choi, Hyun-Woo & Kim, In Joon & Kim, Tong Suk, 2002. "Contingent claims valuation of optional calling plan contracts in telephone industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 433-448.
  131. Petri Hilli & Maarit Kallio & Markku Kallio, 2007. "Real option analysis of a technology portfolio," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 127-147.
  132. Luke T. Miller, 2010. "PMA license valuation: A Bayesian learning real options approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, January.
  133. Josef Schosser & Markus Grottke, 2013. "Nutzengestützte Unternehmensbewertung: Ein Abriss der jüngeren Literatur," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 306-341, June.
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