IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v14y2017i2p126-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of the Discount Rate to the Expected Payoff in Project Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • David Johnstone

    (Discipline of Finance, Business School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia)

Abstract

A routine method in business is to value risky capital investment projects by discounting their expected cash payoffs at “risk-adjusted” discount rates. Discount rates are purportedly allied to projects in “the same risk-class,” but there is little clarity about what makes a risk class. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) gives two mathematically equivalent definitions. One is that assets in the same risk class have the same “beta,” and the other is that they have the same ratio of payoff mean to payoff covariance (with “the market”). The second depiction, albeit widely unknown, is more interesting in terms of cash flow fundamentals. Its implication is that the “denominator” (risk-adjusted discount rate) depends on its own “numerator” (expected payoff). In practical circumstances, the CAPM price-implied discount rate can be highly sensitive to changes in the expected payoff, contradicting the convention of discounting an expected cash flow at some fixed “risk-adjusted” rate regardless of its dollar amount.

Suggested Citation

  • David Johnstone, 2017. "Sensitivity of the Discount Rate to the Expected Payoff in Project Valuation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(2), pages 126-136, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p:126-136
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.2017.0348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2017.0348
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.2017.0348?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levy,Haim, 2012. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model in the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107006713.
    2. Philipp Krüger & Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2015. "The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 1253-1285, June.
    3. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1977. "Risk-adjusted discount rates and capital budgeting under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 3-24, August.
    5. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
    6. Richard Lambert & Christian Leuz & Robert E. Verrecchia, 2007. "Accounting Information, Disclosure, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 385-420, May.
    7. Luiz Brandão & James Dyer, 2005. "Decision Analysis and Real Options: A Discrete Time Approach to Real Option Valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 21-39, March.
    8. Levy,Haim, 2012. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model in the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521186513.
    9. James E. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating Income Streams: A Decision Analysis Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1690-1708, December.
    10. David Johnstone, 2016. "The Effect of Information on Uncertainty and the Cost of Capital," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 752-774, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Johnstone, 2020. "Fama's Ratio and the Effect of Operating Leverage on the Cost of Capital Under CAPM," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(2), pages 268-287, June.
    2. David Johnstone, 2020. "Reply to Linnenluecke, Shen, Smith, Zhu, and Liang (2020)," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(2), pages 292-294, June.
    3. David Johnstone & Steve Tulig, 2022. "Hamada’s equation and the beta of debt under CAPM," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2385-2399, June.
    4. Johnstone, David & Havyatt, David, 2022. "Sophistry and high electricity prices in Australia," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. David J Johnstone, 2023. "Capital budgeting and Kelly betting," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 625-651, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johnstone, David & Havyatt, David, 2022. "Sophistry and high electricity prices in Australia," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. David J Johnstone, 2023. "Capital budgeting and Kelly betting," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 625-651, August.
    3. David Johnstone, 2020. "Fama's Ratio and the Effect of Operating Leverage on the Cost of Capital Under CAPM," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(2), pages 268-287, June.
    4. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.
    5. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
    6. David Johnstone & Steve Tulig, 2022. "Hamada’s equation and the beta of debt under CAPM," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2385-2399, June.
    7. D. J. Johnstone, 2021. "Accounting information, disclosure, and expected utility: Do investors really abhor uncertainty?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-2), pages 3-35, January.
    8. David Johnstone, 2020. "Reply to Linnenluecke, Shen, Smith, Zhu, and Liang (2020)," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(2), pages 292-294, June.
    9. Pendharkar, Parag C., 2010. "Valuing interdependent multi-stage IT investments: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 847-859, March.
    10. Sahoo, Nihar R. & Mohapatra, Pratap K.J. & Mahanty, Biswajit, 2017. "Compliance choice analysis for India's thermal power sector in the market-based energy efficiency regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 624-633.
    11. Guerard, John, 2023. "Harry Markowitz: An appreciation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1496-1501.
    12. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.
    13. Janne Gustafsson, 2020. "Valuation of Research and Development Projects Using Buying and Selling Prices: Generalized Definitions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 154-168, June.
    14. Cameron Truong & Thu Ha Nguyen & Thanh Huynh, 2021. "Customer satisfaction and the cost of capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 293-342, March.
    15. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
    16. Manuel Galea & David Cademartori & Roberto Curci & Alonso Molina, 2020. "Robust Inference in the Capital Asset Pricing Model Using the Multivariate t -distribution," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Singh, Sachin & McAllister, Charles D. & Rinks, Dan & Jiang, Xiaoyue, 2010. "Implication of risk adjusted discount rates on cycle stock and safety stock in a multi-period inventory model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 187-195, January.
    18. Rjiba, Hatem & Saadi, Samir & Boubaker, Sabri & Ding, Xiaoya (Sara), 2021. "Annual report readability and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Adrian, Christofer & Garg, Mukesh & Viet Pham, Anh & Phang, Soon-Yeow & Truong, Cameron, 2022. "Policy and oversight of corporate political activities and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2).
    20. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2010. "Valuing Multifactor Real Options Using an Implied Binomial Tree," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 185-195, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p:126-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.