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Valuation of R&D compound option using Markov chain approach

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  • Guglielmo D’Amico

    (University of Chieti-Pescara)

  • Giovanni Villani

    (University of Bari)

Abstract

Incorporation of technical risk in compound real options has been considered in Cassimon et al. (2011) concerning the valuation of multi-stage pharmaceutical R&D. There, the technical success probabilities at each development stage were assumed to be generated independently of each other. This assumption can be unrealistic in many applied problems, pharmaceutical R&D included. We present a valuation procedure dealing with dependent success probabilities and random development stage times. This greater flexibility allows a better description of the sequence of decision stages and results, which in turn, impact the value of the considered project. The theoretical results are illustrated through a numerical example that shows the implementation of the model to a pharmaceutical R&D problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo D’Amico & Giovanni Villani, 2021. "Valuation of R&D compound option using Markov chain approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 379-404, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:17:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10436-021-00389-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-021-00389-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Bufalo & Antonio Di Bari & Giovanni Villani, 2022. "Multi-stage real option evaluation with double barrier under stochastic volatility and interest rate," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 247-266, June.
    2. Zhao, Pingping & Wang, Tong & Song, Aimin & Chen, Peimin, 2023. "Valuing new drug R&D project under economic fluctuation, technical risks and subjective uncertainty," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Guglielmo D’Amico & Shakti Singh & Dharmaraja Selvamuthu, 2023. "Analysis of fair fee in guaranteed lifelong withdrawal and Markovian health benefits," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 383-400, September.

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